Here comes September 18th like a freight train
On September 16th, 2024, Judge Juan Merchan will render a decision. On that date he will have to decide, in light of the recent Supreme Court ruling, whether or not he will have to throw out Donald Trump’s so-called “Stormy Daniels hush money” case and vacate the sentencing hearing set for two days later. Expect no surprises here. The answer is going to be a resounding “No.”
Forty-eight frantic hours will follow, hours in which Donald Trump’s lawyers will look for some avenue of interlocutory appeal to quash or delay the sentencing hearing. After that frantic attempt fails, the sentencing date will come roaring up like a freight train from hell, and Donald Trump will be forced to board it and ride it to its destination.
Ordinarily a criminal defendant doesn’t get to appeal anything until after sentencing, with a couple of exceptions. One exception is immunity. If you believe you have immunity against prosecution you can legitimately appeal your case anywhere in the process. (Recall that, after several years in prison, comedian Bill Cosby was released on the spurious grounds that he had a verbal immunity deal with the previous prosecutor. That appeal began while the trial was still underway.)
The problem with Donald Trump’s appeal gambit is he committed his crimes before he was president. The Supreme Court ruled that a president has immunity from prosecution only while executing “official duties.” While it’s true that some of the unlawful payments that were a feature of his convictions on 34 counts occurred after Trump came to office, those actions — which were in fact crimes — can hardly be considered part of his “official presidential duties.”
Judge Merchan will see this issue just as clearly as any sane person will. So, too, in all probability, will any appeals court. If they can hear Trump in time, that is. Judge Merchan will probably be asked to delay the sentencing pending this desperate immunity appeal. But Merchan has already made it clear that the sentencing is going to happen on the 18th of September — no matter what. I believe him.
What’s going to happen at the sentencing? I think Donald Trump will be given a custodial sentence. Whether that is limited to home confinement or a full blown long term prison stay remains to be seen. Trump’s lawyers (and Trump himself) will incessantly whine and throw temper tantrums, screaming that this constitutes ELECTION INTERFERENCE. It constitutes no such thing. If Trump didn’t want to be inconvenienced by the crime he shouldn’t have committed it in the first place.
Besides, according to the 14th amendment of the Constitution of the United States, Donald Trump, who engaged in insurrection and rebellion against the United States, is ineligible to run for president in the first place. He shouldn’t be a candidate anyway, sentencing date or no sentencing date.
At this point Donald Trump should do what Joe Biden did. He should drop out of the race for the good of his country and the good of his party. But Trump is no Biden, not by a longshot. Trump would need the human qualities of humility, self-reflection and altruism to do such a thing, qualities he lacks to a breathtaking extent. Whatever Trump does between now and then to save himself, they will be the actions of a little man, a silly man, barbarous and cruel. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.