Here are the House races that WILL DECIDE the majority in 2024

Each election cycle there are 435 House races in total. But only about fifty of them end up being competitive at all, and only half of those end up being highly competitive. It’s not just because of things like gerrymandering. Think about it: the Democrats are easily going to win a House district in Hollywood California, while the Republicans are easily going to win a House district in a rural Southern area.

The key to winning the House majority is to focus on the relative handful of districts that have a roughly equal number of Democratic and Republican leaning voters. These races, known as toss-ups, nearly always come down to a point or two in either direction. The party that wins most of the toss-up races generally wins the House majority.

As with every election cycle, in 2024 we’re going to focus exclusively on the House (and Senate) races that are going to be close enough that we can make a difference in the outcome. Right now there are twenty-two “toss up” House races according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. We’ll be using that as our guidepost.

Of the 22 toss-up races, nine of them feature a Democratic incumbent, which means the Democrats already have their candidate firmly in place. Eleven other races feature a Republican incumbent (and two others have no incumbent). Some states hold their primaries later than others, so we’ll be adding the Democratic nominees in those races to this list as they become official (or obvious).

There are also twenty House races that either “Lean Democrat” or “Lean Republican.” Those races are also competitive (though less so than the toss-up races), and we’ll get to them a bit later in the election cycle. But for now it’s all about the “Toss up” races.

STEP ONE in taking the House majority is to get these nine Democrats reelected. Donate if you have the money. Volunteer if you have the time. If you don’t have the time or money, follow them on Twitter and retweet them whenever they post donation links, so others will see it. Donation links below are taken directly from the candidates’ official websites:

Toss up races with Democratic challengers

MI-07 (Michigan), Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

MI-08 (Michigan), Democratic candidate Kristen McDonald Rivet • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

AZ-06 (Arizona), Democratic candidate Kirsten Engel • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

NJ-07 (New Jersey), Democratic candidate Sue Altman • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

NY-04 (New York), Democratic candidate Laura Gillen • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

NY-17 (New York), Democratic candidate Mondaire Jones • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

NY-19 (New York), Democratic candidate Josh Riley • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

OR-05 (Oregon), Democratic candidate Janelle Bynum • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

CA-13 (California), Democratic candidate Adam Gray • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

CA-22 (California), Democratic candidate Rudy Salas • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

CA-27 (California), Democratic candidate George Whitesides • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

CA-41 (California), Democratic candidate Will Rollins • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

Toss up races with Democratic incumbents

CO-08 (Colorado), House Democrat Yadira Caraveo • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

ME-02 (Maine), House Democrat Jared Golden • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

NC-01 (North Carolina), House Democrat Don Davis • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

NM-02 (New Mexico), House Democrat Gabe Vasquez • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

OH-09 (Ohio), House Democrat Marcy Kaptur • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

OH-13 (Ohio), House Democrat Emilia Sykes • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

PA-07 (Pennsylvania), House Democrat Susan Wild • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

PA-08 (Pennsylvania), House Democrat Matt Cartwright • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter

WA-03 (Washington State), House Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez • Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Twitter