Heidi Heitkamp says she’s voting “no” on Brett Kavanaugh. Here’s how that impacts things.

| 2:37 pm EDT October 4, 2018
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Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp has announced just now that she’s voting “no” on Brett Kavanaugh, even though she’s in a tight race for reelection in a red state. As Palmer Report explained from the start, Heitkamp was never, ever, ever going to be the deciding “yes” vote on something this important to her party. But her announcement that she’s voting “no” is nonetheless a big deal, because it may tell us something about the Republican votes.

If the GOP had enough votes to confirm Kavanaugh all on its own, and Heidi Heitkamp couldn’t have stopped him by voting “no,” she could have decided to cast a meaningless “yes” vote in an attempt at improving her own reelection chances back home. Instead she’s publicly committing herself to voting “no” already. This may mean that she doesn’t think the GOP has the votes. So how could she know this?

The timing here is notable. The Democrats started viewing the FBI report on Brett Kavanaugh this morning. Even though it’s very limited in scope, Mitch McConnell is bending over backward to try to prevent the Democrats from leaking it, which suggests that it does contain some dirt on Kavanaugh. Shortly after the Democrats began getting their eyes on the report, Heitkamp felt confident enough to announce her “no” vote.

Keep in mind that the comparatively moderate Senators from both parties tend to coordinate on things. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Jeff Flake all saw the report this morning. Did they say something to Heidi Heitkamp that made her decide to go ahead and announce her vote?

It’s entirely possible that Heidi Heitkamp’s principled stand here has nothing to do with what she thinks the outcome will be. But it’s equally possible that she’s taking this stand because she now believes the GOP doesn’t have the votes. Stay tuned – the outcome of this vote is far from known.

Dear Palmer Report readers, we all understand the difficult era we're heading into. Major media outlets are caving to Trump already. Even the internet itself and publishing platforms may be at risk. But Palmer Report is nonetheless going to lead the fight. We're funding our 2025 operating expenses now, so we can keep publishing no matter what happens. I'm asking you to contribute if you can, because the stakes are just so high. You can donate here.