Halfway to where we want to be
I’ve said all along that I won’t be comfortable until Kamala Harris is about seven points ahead of Donald Trump in the national polling averages. Why is such a big lead necessary? It fends off any Electoral College flukes, voter suppression schemes, polling errors, and election certification antics. A seven point victory would also be enough to likely carry the House and Senate.
While Kamala Harris has been rising in the polls, she does not yet have a seven point lead. The good news is that she’s getting closer. Her best polling numbers are now in the seven to eight point range, and her lead in the polling averages is now up to four points.
Four points is slightly more than halfway to seven points. So I’m now willing to say that we’re halfway to where we want to be. It’s only taken us a month to pull ahead by four points. But the next three to four points will be more difficult. Modern presidential elections rarely have that large of a margin of victory. Bill Clinton won by nine points in 1996 and it was considered a total blowout. Joe Biden won by five points in 2020 and it was barely enough to put him over the top in the Electoral College.
So let’s keep at it. Our current four point lead in the polling is absolutely fantastic. We’re a heck of a lot better off than the other side is. But four points is not yet where we want to be. Let’s double it. Sign up at go.kamalaharris.com and get involved and help make Kamala Harris’ lead so large that it leaves no doubt.
