GOP sounds the alarm
A general rule for the sentiment of the country is to see who votes in special elections for vacated seats – typically the seat of someone who has joined the incumbent president’s administration. For example, a heavily Republican district where the winner is a Republican but underperforms by several points could indicate that the winner’s party (and its policies) are not being well-received overall, though it usually takes a few special elections averaged together in various districts to get a clearer picture. These are typically in seats that are either solidly red or blue so flipping them is rarely ever likely.
Right now, Republicans are sounding the alarm about Florida’s 6th congressional district, which Donald Trump won in 2024 by 30 points and where GOP Rep. Michael Waltz did slightly better when he won reelection. The best thing that you can do, however, is just sit back and watch. The Democratic candidate in the race has significantly outraised his opponent, Republican Randy Fine, by an embarrassing amount, so it may be tempting to send a few dollars that way. That’s money that’s better spent on Susan Crawford’s supreme court race happening next week in Wisconsin – where she’s slightly ahead and Democrats do have a chance of winning.
As for Florida, if the special election race shows Fine winning by only 10 points or less, it’s a good red flag for the GOP before midterms next year. If Fine loses (not likely but not impossible), it’s a five-alarm fire. However, as the party that’s out of power, it’s crucial that we keep our resources and our focus on the battles that we can win in the long term – and the supreme court race in Wisconsin that takes place on April 1, is definitely one of them, with the balance of the state’s supreme court on the line. Let’s make sure Susan Crawford wins!
James Sullivan is the assistant editor of Brain World Magazine and an advocate of science-based policy making