GOP leadership agrees to Jeff Flake’s demand for FBI investigation into Brett Kavanaugh. Here’s what happens next [UPDATED]

| 4:51 pm EDT September 28, 2018
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Update, 4:57pm – Trump just announced he’s ordered an FBI investigation into Kavanaugh. Republican Senator Jeff Flake has managed to succeed in one of the most strangely played gambits in the history of the Senate. By voting for Brett Kavanaugh in committee, and then asking for an FBI investigation prior to the full Senate, he somehow managed to push the GOP Senate leadership into formally agreeing to an investigation. This changes everything. Here’s what happens next.

Now that the Republican leadership has formally and publicly asked Donald Trump to order an FBI investigation, Trump has no leverage. It’s clear that Mitch McConnell doesn’t have the votes (his first move after Flake’s throw-down was to meet with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski), or he wouldn’t be going along with this. If Trump refuses to order the probe, the nomination will fail in the Senate. Trump will surely ask Brett Kavanaugh if he wants to go along with the FBI investigation or if he wants to drop out.

How Kavanaugh responds is anyone’s guess. Between the multiple accusations of sexual assault and rape, the multiple times Kavanaugh has committed perjury this month, the lies he might have to risk telling the FBI in the hope of derailing the investigation, his gigantic personal debts and alleged gambling habits, and the other skeletons in his closet, Kavanaugh may conclude that if the FBI begins investigating him, he’ll end up in prison, and thus decide to drop out before the FBI can get involved. On the other hand, if Kavanaugh drops out now, he’s basically admitting in the court of public opinion that the accusations against him are true – though the court of public opinion alone doesn’t have the power to put someone behind bars.

If there is an FBI investigation, we’ll see how much it can substantiate about the existing allegations against Brett Kavanaugh, and what else it can dredge up about him. Mark Judge, who allegedly participated in multiple Kavanaugh assaults, just told major media outlets that he intends to fully cooperate with any FBI probe. He surely knows that if he lies to the FBI, he’ll go to prison.

So let’s say that there’s a week long FBI investigation that bloodies Brett Kavanaugh’s nose rather severely. At that point Trump and McConnell would have to decide whether to force a full Senate vote, and that would again come down to Collins and Murkowski. But it appears that they – along with Jeff Flake – are counting on the FBI probe (or the threat of one) finishing Kavanaugh off, so they never do have to vote “yes” or “no” on him in a full Senate vote.