Good news and bad news:
The challenge all along with the 2024 Senate map is that there are seven competitive races and the Democrats have to win them all just to keep a de facto fifty seat majority. Those seven Senate races have been in two categories, as defined by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. There are four Senate races in the “toss up” category: Nevada, Montana, Ohio, and Michigan. There are three other Senate races in the “lean Democratic” category: Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But now that’s changed.
Earlier this week I wrote that after looking at how the polls were trending, the 2024 Senate majority was likely to come down entirely to whether we can get Democratic Senator Jon Tester reelected in Montana, a state that’s red but loves Tester very much. Now things have shifted in a way that further underscores this premise.
Cook has now moved the Nevada race from “toss up” to “lean Democratic.” This is great news, and it corresponds to the numerical trend that I spotted earlier this week. It doesn’t mean we can just ignore the Nevada Senate race now. “Lean Democratic” means it’s still competitive. But it does mean that Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen is slightly in the driver’s seat when it comes to her reelection bid.
While Cook hasn’t (yet) changed its ratings on the toss up Senate races in Michigan or Ohio, the numbers are now slightly favoring the Democrats in both those races. Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin is now the slight favorite in the race for the open Michigan Seat. And while Ohio is a red state, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is beloved there, and the numbers are now slightly in his favor.
So the good news is that of the seven competitive Senate races we need to win, we’re now slightly favored (and gaining momentum) in six of them. The bad news is that the seventh race, Montana, is now still very much a toss up, both by Cook’s estimation and by mine.
“Toss up” means that the race is likely to end up being very close – and that’s what we’re looking at in Montana. We’re looking at a nightmare scenario on election night in which Kamala Harris wins, the House majority goes Democratic, we win the six Senate races we’re slightly favored in, and then we lose the Montana Senate race by a single point… and then President Harris goes the first two years of her presidency not being able to pass any legislation or appoint any judges or justices.
That’s why I’m so adamant about focusing on getting Jon Tester reelected in Montana. While I do personally love the guy and I think he’s exactly what a Democrat in Montana should be, this is not a referendum on him. Getting Tester reelected is a referendum on whether we’re willing to do what’s necessary to give President Kamala Harris a Senate majority.
So even if Jon Tester isn’t your personal cup of tea, or even if you feel weird about having to get involved in a race in Montana of all places, I’m telling you that Jon Tester’s seat is the key to Kamala Harris’ presidency. Even if I didn’t like Tester personally, I’d still be insisting that we all put our focus on getting Tester reelected.
Some of you are probably asking why I’m focused on the Senate race in Montana, and not the Senate races in Texas or Florida. The answer is that Texas and Florida are simply not in play. With the way things are trending nationally, they might be in play a month from now. If that does happen, we’ll have an outside shot at flipping those two seats, and I promise you we’ll go heavy at them.
But unlike those other two seats, the Montana Senate seat is in play already. It’s something we can work on now, with a guarantee it’ll help us. So let’s all agree to donate to Jon Tester’s campaign and sign up to volunteer remotely for his campaign. It’ll totally be worth it. Just go to his website and get started: jontester.com.
