Gag orders and more? What Donald Trump is really facing at arraignment
When Donald Trump is placed under arrest and taken to arraignment in front of a judge on Tuesday, a lot of focus will understandably be on superficial matters, such as whether he’ll be in handcuffs and when his mugshot will be released. But the more lasting impact will come in the form of what restrictions the judge places on Trump at arraignment.
It’s important to keep in mind that Trump has no criminal record, the charges he’s facing in Manhattan are nonviolent, and (in spite of social media conspiracy theories) he’s not an immediate flight risk. Normally, someone in his position would be released on his own recognizance, and would then try to avoid getting on the judge’s bad side while awaiting trial. But Trump is incapable of behaving normally.
Trump has already posted numerous inappropriate attacks on social media against everyone from the prosecutor to the judge. He’s also tried to incite violence against the prosecutor. These are things you just can’t do when you’re a criminal defendant, and these are things that you do not get away with.
The judge in the case knows what he’s dealing with. He knows that he will likely end up having to use gag orders and other measures in order to get Trump to shut up about the case. That said, don’t be disappointed if the judge initially places minimal restrictions on Trump, along with a clear warning about the kinds of things he’s not allowed to say. If the judge does this, it’ll merely be to establish justification for cracking down on Trump once he does violate these rules.
Keep in mind that pretrial restrictions are not supposed to be punishment. The defendant isn’t considered guilty while awaiting trial. Any restrictions the judge does place are all about maintaining public safety, and maintaining the sanctity of the upcoming trial. Judges aren’t supposed to assign tighter pretrial restrictions than they think are necessary to achieve those goals. But as we’ve seen time and again, when defendants force the issue with misbehavior, the judge will crack down as swiftly and harshly as deemed necessary.
So it’s entirely possible that Donald Trump will leave his arraignment on Tuesday with nothing but a set of rules about the things he’s not allowed to say about his criminal case, and a stern warning about what’ll happen to him if he breaks those rules. But that won’t be a victory for Trump, unless he can avoid breaking the rules – and that’s not really in his nature.
Even if Trump isn’t hit with a gag order this upcoming week, he could turn around and mouth off online and end up with a gag order the week after that. And if he keeps violating his gag order, he could then face anything from a loss of internet access to travel restrictions to pretrial detention.
The bottom line is that whatever restrictions Trump gets hit with on Tuesday, it’ll be just a starting point, and those restrictions will ramp up quickly if his behavior deteriorates. More to the point, other than following the rules, there is nothing Trump can do about it. Pretrial restrictions are at the judge’s sole discretion. If Trump doesn’t like it, he can try to appeal it, but other judges aren’t going to be particularly amenable to a guy who keeps attacking the judge overseeing his case.
As of Tuesday, Trump will essentially be owned by the judge in his case, through the end of his trial. It’s a position that Trump has never been in before. And unless he pulls back on his behavior rather quickly, it’s a situation that’ll go very poorly for him.
