Fact check: no, the midterm polls aren’t suddenly trending Republican this week
The first warning sign was on Sunday, when multiple major news sites including Axios, CNN, and The Hill all published articles out of nowhere which claimed that the midterms were suddenly trending Republican – and that a “red wave” was suddenly possible. Then on Monday, multiple MSNBC hosts piled on with even more doomsday hysteria about the Republicans suddenly being on track to run away with the midterms. This of course prompted widespread angry defeatist ranting across social media about how the Republicans could be running away with the midterms.
But here’s the thing: the numbers do not support these sudden claims that the Republicans are on track to run away with the midterms. These news outlets are all guilty of the familiar media trope of cherry picking individual poll numbers that give the impression of movement, while ignoring the fact that the overall polling averages aren’t really moving at all. That’s right, for all the doom and gloom the media has shoveled at us over the past 48 hours, the midterm polling averages haven’t really changed any. There is no story here. It’s a made up story, out of thin air.
What’s remarkable about the past week or two is that the midterm numbers largely haven’t changed. Most of the competitive Senate races are almost exactly where they were a week or two ago. The polling averages and expert rankings haven’t really changed over the past week for almost any competitive House races either.
Perhaps it’s this lack of movement that prompted someone in the media to decide that this would be a good week to chase ratings by cherry picking numbers and pretending the Republicans are heading for a red wave. And if you want to keep audiences paralyzed with fear so they’ll just stare at their screens for these final three weeks, there’s no better way to do it than to tell them they’re going to lose the midterms anyway.
After all, the media and pundit class can’t milk audiences for ratings, page views, and retweets if audiences stop staring at their screens and instead head out there into the real world and put in work for candidates in competitive races.
If this is the kind of ratings-driven doomsday crap that the media is going to feed us all week, then this is a particularly good week to turn off your TV entirely. Pick a competitive House or Senate race, sign up for more information on the Democratic candidate’s website, and pick one of the volunteering options they send you. You can do something as ambitious as going door to door, or something as low-key as volunteering remotely from home. Your TV will still be there in three weeks. But your opportunity to impact the outcome of the midterms is a ticking clock. Let’s get to work! Here are some competitive races to get you started:
Toss-up races (Democratic challenger)
Andrea Salinas OR-06 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Seth Magaziner (Rhode Island): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Annette Taddeo FL-27 (Florida): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Toss-up races (Democratic incumbent)
Vicente Gonzalez TX-34 (Texas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-R races
Christina Bohannan IA-01 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tom O’Halleran AZ-02 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-D races
Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at promoting them evenly. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.
