Down goes the Trump Organization

| 4:50 pm EST February 17, 2022
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For some time now it’s been clear how the New York Attorney General’s civil probe into the Trump Organization, and the related Manhattan District Attorney’s criminal probe into Donald Trump and his family, were going to play out. New York would compel the Trumps to testify against the Trump Organization. If they complied, they’d risk further incriminating themselves in the criminal probe. If they refused to testify, New York would use it as a basis for summarily ruling against the Trump Organization and taking its assets.

How obvious has this strategy been? Attorneys for the Trump family argued in New York Supreme Court today that the strategy was unfair. In response, prosecutors didn’t deny that this is their strategy, and instead merely argued why it’s legal. As fully expected, the judge ended up ruling today that Donald Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Donald Trump Jr. must testify against the Trump Organization.

There’s still a bit of room for further delay on appeal, but given that we’re already at the New York Supreme Court level, we’re already nearly at the end of the court process. It’s almost impossible to imagine any of the Trumps showing up and giving cooperative testimony about their own alleged financial crimes. Nor are any of them likely dumb enough to show up and lie under oath, which would land them in prison for perjury. Instead they’re almost certainly going to either show up and invoke the Fifth Amendment in response to every question, or not show up at all.

Keep in mind that the Fifth Amendment is not a magic wand – particularly in this circumstance. If the Trumps plead the fifth, the New York Attorney General will interpret this as a refusal to testify about the Trump Organization, just as surely as if they hadn’t shown up to testify at all. In other words, once the Trumps miss their deadline to testify, Letitia James will conclude that the Trump Organization is liable, and she’ll assign massive financial penalties accordingly. Given that the Trump Organization is not in any sort of financial shape to pay off potentially billions of dollars in penalties, it’ll presumably be dismantled by the state.

Days ago, accounting firm Mazars informed the Trump Organization (and Letitia James) that the past decade’s worth of Donald Trump’s financial statements were unreliable. James then quickly made this public in a court filing, thus opening the door for Trump’s lenders and creditors to begin calling in loans and/or attempting to seize assets. This means creditors could now quickly dismantle the Trump Organization before the state even gets around to it.

In any case, the Trump Organization is finished. Now the focus shifts to New York’s related criminal investigation into the Trump family, which covers these same topics of falsified asset valuations. In other words, Donald Trump is going to prison.