Red State Democrat Doug Jones says he’s voting “no” on Brett Kavanaugh – here what it tells us about the rest of the votes

| 11:33 pm EDT September 27, 2018
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Earlier this evening Palmer Report explained that while there was no sure way to predict how the various “red state” Democrats in the Senate might end up voting on Brett Kavanaugh, the one certain thing was that none of them would cast the deciding vote in Kavanaugh’s favor. Now one of the red state Democrats is announcing that he’s a firm “no” on Kavanaugh.

Senator Doug Jones of Alabama has announced his vote late tonight on Twitter: “I have called for: Complete disclosure of all documents Subpoena Mark Judge. Postpone the vote. Dr Ford was credible & courageous. What message will we send to our daughters & sons, let alone sexual assault victims? The message I will send is this—I vote no.” Again, someone like Jones was never going to even consider voting “yes” unless the Republicans already had the votes, and his vote would have been a symbolic attempt at winning over the conservatives in his home state. So what does it tell us that he’s already announcing his “no” vote?

There are two interpretations here, and you can take your pick. The first would be that he thinks the Republicans won’t have the votes. The second would be that he doesn’t know if the Republicans are going to have the votes, but he feels like his best move is to vote “no” either way. In any case, Jones clearly thinks his best shot at reelection as a Democrat in the very conservative state of Alabama is to give Kavanaugh a very public thumbs-down a few days before he’ll have to make his vote official.

At the least, this has to give the holdout Republican Senators something to think about. If Doug Jones thinks that decisively going against Brett Kavanaugh will boost his chances of reelection in a red state like Alabama, what does that say about Republican Senator Susan Collins’ reelection prospects in a purple state like Maine? If nothing else, this helps put to bed the baseless yet persistent cable news narrative about red state Democrats somehow putting Kavanaugh over the top.