Donald Trump’s ugliest post-conviction poll number yet
Several new polls conducted and released since Donald Trump’s felony conviction have revealed bad news for him. For instance, a few polls have shown that among voters who don’t like Trump or President Biden, about two-thirds of them think Trump is guilty and should drop out. That’s good news for Biden, it could motivate them to vote for him just to keep the convict out of power.
The question of course is what’s going to happen with the polls going forward. Even if Biden has pulled ahead by a few points, as the polls now suggest, what happens a month from now, or more importantly five months from now?
It’s a good question. I saw one new poll in particular today which may provide the answer. It said that among those who are considered swing voters, more than 60% of them haven’t heard much about Trump’s trial or conviction. This is a sad statement about how many Americans don’t pay attention to what’s going on in their own democracy. It’s also a condemnation of the media for obvious reasons. But in terms of 2024, it appears to be really good news. Why?
As a result of his felony conviction, Trump is already being hurt in the polls. Yet we’re now learning that the majority of low information voters don’t even really know much of anything yet about Trump being a felon. As we get closer to election day, and as Americans start paying closer attention to the growing media coverage of the election, more of these low information voters will have it drilled into them that, yes, one of the major parties really has nominated a recently convicted felon.
And so if anything, Trump’s felony conviction should serve to hurt him even more in the polls as we get closer to the election. What we’re seeing right now is just the first wave.
Keep in mind that “swing” voters are not sitting there trying to decide whether to vote for Biden or Trump (anyone who’s that lost isn’t going to vote at all, no matter what they claim in town halls). In reality there are two groups of swing voters. There are people on the right who can’t decide whether to vote for Trump or stay home. And there are people in the mainstream who can’t decide whether to vote for Biden or stay home. Trump’s felony conviction appears to hurt him with both these groups.
