Donald Trump’s no-win debate scenario
Donald Trump and his surrogates keep saying things that make it sound like Trump isn’t going to show up for tonight’s presidential debate. This could indeed end up being the case. It’s also equally possible that they’re simply trying to set the bar low. At this point Trump’s handlers have made “Will Trump even show up” the central question leading up to the debate. So just by showing up, he clears that bar.
As far as parlor tricks go, it’s not a bad one. But it’s also not going to help Trump much. He still faces two options tonight, and it’s difficult to imagine either one of them working out well for him.
Now that Trump has put a “will he or won’t he” vibe out there, if he doesn’t show, he’s going to take heat for it. Even if he claims he suddenly has laryngitis or that he doesn’t like his microphone placement, it’s still largely going to be seen as him having decided in advance to bail. It’ll be interpreted as Trump being afraid to show up and debate. And it’ll put significant focus on his ongoing cognitive troubles.
On the other hand, if Trump does show up, it’ll put even more focus on his cognitive troubles. Trump can’t even get through a rally speech, where he’s the only one speaking and the audience loves him, without getting confused and telling incoherent stories about sharks while making up gibberish words. How much more poorly will Trump fare cognitively when he has to deal with President Biden and a moderator?
I’m not going to make any predictions about whether or not Trump will show up tonight. But if he does show up, I expect things to go quite badly for him. Trump keeps talking about Biden on drugs tonight, which some observers have interpreted as an admission on Trump’s part that he’ll be on drugs. But no amount of medicinal intervention can help the fact that Trump now presents as a dementia patient. Tonight should be truly eye opening for persuadable voters in the middle – if Trump shows up. And if he doesn’t show up, that’ll be eye opening as well.
