Donald Trump’s base is out of gas
On Saturday, Donald Trump gave a speech at a rally which was fairly poorly attended, given that this is the height of the 2022 election cycle. That same day Trump supporters held what was supposed to be a massive rally of their own, but it reportedly only had 27 attendees. That’s not a typo; twenty-seven people.
Trump’s supporters barely turn out for his speeches anymore, and don’t turn out at all for their own planned events if Trump isn’t personally attending. They’re out of gas. Their spirit is broken. They’re done. Trump’s supporters won’t do anything when he’s arrested.
Individual disturbed people might act on their own when Trump is arrested, and that’ll be a job for law enforcement. But the notion of some kind of organized… well, anything organized, just isn’t in the cards. These are the kinds of bully-cowards who were only willing to storm the Capitol on January 6th because they knew Trump had control of federal law enforcement and could run interference for them. These are the kinds of losers who hide under their desks when the odds aren’t artificially stacked in their favor.
It’s the latest reminder that for all of the near-constant hype that the entire mainstream media has given Trump’s base over the past seven years, that base has never particularly been relevant at any point. They’re not why he won in 2016. They couldn’t save him in 2020. They’re too busy pouting to turn out for him or his candidates in 2022. There’s nothing they can do to keep him from going to prison, or help him with his 2024 pipe dream.
It’s not just the relatively small size of Trump’s base that makes it irrelevant. It’s that these are people who just want to feel aggrieved, and don’t want to do any work. They think going to campaign rallies is activism, and now most of them can’t even be bothered to do that. They were always so convinced that everyone else is going to vote for Trump, they never bothered trying to convince anyone outside their base to go out and vote for him. Sure, they’ll put a Trump sign in their yard or wear a Trump shirt, but that’s just about getting off on offending decent people. The notion of actually phone banking, or canvassing, or putting in the kind of work that helps make a difference in the outcome of an election, was never of interest to them.
This is one part of why, even thou 2022 midterms should historically have been a cakewalk for Republicans, the Senate and House are both firmly up for grabs for the Democrats. Trump’s base now dominates the Republican Party, having chased all the moderates and decent people out of the party over the past few years. And Trump’s base doesn’t believe in (or doesn’t understand) that close elections are won by the side that puts in the most work.
There are plenty of activists on the Democrats’ side who fully understand the need to put in the groundwork to win elections. The Democrats’ odds of winning the 2022 midterms will ultimately come down to how many of the activists on the Democrats’ side of the fence decide to put in the work. Meanwhile, as Trump’s base dejectedly pouts, the Democrats have a historic opportunity to retain Congress in the midterms.
