Donald Trump’s base can be left out of the math entirely
E. Jean Carroll will probably win this week’s civil trial against Donald Trump. Civil trials don’t have verdicts like “guilty” or “not guilty.” Instead, legally speaking the jury would find that Trump likely raped Carroll, and decide that he’s “responsible” for damages. But the court of public opinion would still largely interpret this as the courts having ruled that Trump is a rapist, and that would be devastating for him.
The thing is, we keep hearing about how such an outcome to this trial will have “no impact” on Trump’s base, who will keep worshipping him forever. My response to that is a simple one: who cares? In terms of the political process, the cretins in Trump’s base are simply not relevant.
In fact, when it comes to politics and elections, Donald Trump’s base has always been 100% irrelevant. Their votes are already locked in anyway. They can’t magically vote twice. They don’t seem to have any influence over people outside their own ranks. And they’re a small-ish minority who can’t determine the outcome of any election on their own. Trump’s base is a disturbing creep show, but it’s not a relevant political force and it never has been.
The media (on both sides) has now spent the better part of a decade hyping Trump’s base for ratings. But that base has always been of zero relevance. Trump’s base isn’t why he won in 2016. Trump’s base couldn’t help him in 2020. Even with Trump’s base still on board with him for 2024, he’s at a pathetic 55% in Republican primary polling. Trump’s base has always been irrelevant.
But right wing media outlets and pundits have always wanted Trump’s base as their audience, because fanatical cult members are willing to tune in every day and give you consistently strong ratings as long as you keep telling them exactly what they wish were true. And mainstream and left-leaning media outlets and pundits have always tried to keep their audiences tuned in by keeping them rapt with fear and abhorrence toward Trump’s base. So, for ratings purposes, Trump’s base is all we ever hear about, from every corner of the media and pundit class. Even though Trump’s base is of no relevance.
Hillary Clinton got millions more votes than Trump did. Joe Biden got millions more votes than Trump did. But no media outlet, on any side, has ever spent any time talking about “Hillary’s base” or “Biden’s base.” There have never been any ratings to be had by focusing on those groups of people, so the media has always simply pretended that those groups don’t exist.
Anytime anything happens in politics, we have to listen to hours and hours and hours of pundits putting on this performance art where they endlessly lament about how this latest news story sadly won’t have any impact on how Trump’s base sees things. But who gives a damn? This is a group that has literally never decided the outcome of an election, and never will.
Sitting around fretting or lamenting over Trump’s base is of no value. The key to winning any election is to focus on the various groups of persuadable voters. That means maximizing turnout within your own base. It means winning over people outside your base who lean your direction but aren’t inclined to vote without a good reason. It means convincing people who lean slightly the other direction to, if nothing else, stay home. The groups you don’t worry about are the ones who are already locked in, because they’re not a variable you can influence anyway. In terms of winning and losing, Trump’s base has always been the one group that can be left out of the math entirely.
