Donald Trump’s bail revocation may have finally come to a head
Over the past few weeks, folks on social media have decided that Donald Trump’s every word and every move were grounds for revoking his bail. Of course what constitutes a bail violation in the court of public opinion, and what constitutes a bail violation in an actual court of law, are two very different things. But Trump may have now finally managed to pull off the latter.
When Trump attacked Judge Engoron over the weekend, the internet was certain that Trump had violated the judge’s gag order. I tried to explain that the judge hadn’t specified whether his gag order protecting court officers also applied to the judge himself. When the judge didn’t take any action against Trump, the internet saw it as “weakness” or “special treatment.” But in reality it was simply confirmation that the judge had not included himself in the gag order.
Something similar happened when Judge Chutkan issued a gag order against Trump, only to then place a temporary stay on it pending appeal. The internet once again misinterpreted this as the judge “backing down” or “letting Trump off the hook.” But in reality it was just a standard fare procedural move.
So we’ve seen this sort of fictional environment build up on social media where everyone is certain that 1) Trump has violated the terms of his bail, and 2) judges are letting Trump “get away with it.” Because this kind of rage-addiction always leads to disappointment, the internet is now shrugging off the fact that Trump directly tampered with known witness Mark Meadows on Tuesday night. After all, the internet is insisting, the judges are just letting him “get away” with this kind of thing anyway.
But back in the real world, what happened last night was very different from anything that’s come before. Basically, what Trump did last night is what the internet has spent the past few weeks incorrectly insisting Trump was doing all along. If you bash the judge, you’re not influencing the trial. The judge isn’t going to be intimidated by you. After all, the judge has total control over your every movement. But when you go after a witness, that’s a 100% different situation. A judge might be willing to take personal barbs from a defendant all day, and laugh it off. But a judge feels compelled to actively protect witnesses from a defendant. And Trump just crossed that line in unmistakable fashion.
It’s important to understand that witness tampering is witness tampering whether there’s a gag order in place or not. There’s been a lot of lamenting about how Trump will “get away” with going after Meadows because the gag order has been temporarily stayed, but that’s completely irrelevant. A gag order is for keeping a defendant from being able to wander into any gray areas. Trump’s social media post about Meadows isn’t a gray area. It’s clear cut felony witness intimidation.
There will be repercussions for this in Judge Chutkan’s courtroom. I don’t know what they’ll be. Judges have discretion on this kind of thing. But Chutkan is not going to sit back and let defendant Trump commit felony witness tampering against witness Meadows. What we don’t know is whether she’ll see this as a bail violation and act accordingly, or if she’ll see it as a matter for trial and open the door for Jack Smith to tack on witness tampering charges.
But one way or the other, Donald Trump has very stupidly forced the issue. He was tiptoeing around before. Now he’s crossed the line. It shows just how spooked Trump is by the news that Meadows testified against him. Meadows’ testimony will sharply increase the already very high odds that Trump will be convicted at trial. And now Trump will either face reduced pretrial privileges, or witness tampering charges at trial, or both. Trump is taking himself down more quickly than prosecutors can.
