Donald Trump just stepped in it
When Nikki Haley suspended her campaign on Wednesday, Donald Trump was handed a golden opportunity to make nice with her. It was an opportunity that he absolutely needed to seize. The thing about Haley voters is that they’re not some Haley cult. They’re simply anti-Trump Republicans who have spent the entire primary process making clear that they want anyone but Trump. First they supported DeSantis, then they pivoted to Haley, and if Porky Pig were still in the Republican primary race, they’d probably now be pivoting to him.
But these anti-Trump Republicans did land on Haley as their final choice before the field emptied out. And so the best way for Trump to court these voters would be to make nice with Haley – or at least try to appeal to those who voted for Haley in the primary. Many or most of them can’t be won over. But elections are often decided by winning over just a small percentage of a group that’s supposed to be against you. And Trump isn’t doing that.
Sure, there was the obligatory post on Trump’s social media page, calling for “all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation.” But that came at the end of a rant attacking Haley, and it’s… not how you court people who are already inclined to hate you. In order to win over some of these voters, Trump would have to, at least briefly, show humility. He’d have to say “I’ll work hard to earn your vote.” And he’s just not capable of that.
In fact just weeks ago Trump announced that anyone who threw their support behind Nikki Haley would be banished from his movement. It was a completely idiotic thing to say, given that Haley was no longer a real threat by then. But Trump just had to stick it to her, even if it meant further alienating the anti-Trump Republican voters who had lined up behind her. And now he’ll have an even more difficult time winning them over – if he’s even capable of trying.
For a long time we’ve been subjected to a media narrative, coming from both sides, about how Trump’s base is the Republican base. Of course that’s never, ever been true. For the past three years, for instance, polling has consistently shown that Trump was only on track to get perhaps 55% of the Republican primary vote. The other 45% of Republican voters wanted anyone but Trump. They still want anyone but Trump. And if they now end up stuck with Trump, well let’s just say that it doesn’t add up to general election viability.
But it feels like a confused and delusional Trump bought into that false media narrative about his base and the Republican base being the same thing. He must have thought he could blow off and attack the anti-Trump Republican crowd and not lose anything. But in reality he’s just been alienating nearly half the people he needs to turn around and vote for him in November.
It’s a reminder of two things. First, Trump was never, ever any good at political strategy. He ran a highly ineffective campaign in 2016 and was then handed the election through forces that had nothing to do with him. He ran another highly ineffective campaign in 2020 and lost by seven million votes. Now in 2024 he’s running one of the most ineffective campaigns of all time.
Second, it’s clear that Donald Trump is falling to pieces more severely than ever. Imagine being a “presumptive nominee” for your party after getting just barely more than half your party’s votes, and then deciding that the smartest course of action is to attack the other half who didn’t vote for you. At this point Trump is equal parts senile, stupid, and insane.
