Donald Trump is back on the Colorado 2024 ballot (for now), but he’s off the Maine 2024 ballot (for now)
All along I’ve urged everyone not to get too excited about the prospect of Donald Trump being removed from the 2024 presidential ballot under the 14th Amendment. The only states that have any realistic chance of removing him are the kinds of blue states where he wasn’t going to get any electoral votes to begin with. And even if those kinds of states do remove him, the U.S. Supreme Court could easily re-add him to the ballot.
Sure enough, even as we wait for the U.S Supreme Court to decide what it’s going to do with the Colorado ballot, the Colorado Secretary of State announced today that Trump is back on the ballot unless the U.S. Supreme Court decides that he’s not going to be on the ballot.
This is more of a procedural move, and not really a victory for Trump. But it is a reminder that this all comes down to the whim of a very corrupt and very disjointed U.S. Supreme Court. The only way Trump will ultimately be removed from any ballots is if the U.S. Supreme Court decides he should be. Does anyone want to take those odds?
The U.S. Supreme Court has shown little interest in sticking its neck out to help Donald Trump with his legal troubles and criminal trials. But this is a different kind of matter. I know I’m not putting money on John Roberts or Samuel Alito deciding to keep Trump off the 2024 ballot.
Shortly after the Colorado news broke, the Maine Secretary of State ruled this evening that Trump is ineligible for the 2024 ballot in that state. This is indeed good news for the “Trump is disqualified” movement. But this move will now be challenged in the Maine Supreme Court, and if it survives there, the U.S. Supreme Court. Once again, the 14th Amendment is not some level you can just pull. These kinds of things always come down to how the courts, not the Twitter pundits, interpret the Constitution.
Meanwhile, the Michigan courts and the Minnesota have ruled that Trump will be on the 2024 ballot in Michigan. Remember, the laws are different in each state. So it’s not entirely surprising to see the courts rule one way in one state and another way in other states. Trump being removed from the ballot in Michigan would have mattered, since it’s a swing state that could go either way. But removing him in Colorado is merely symbolic. Maine could end up mattering, due to how the state splits its electoral votes, so let’s see what the courts do with it.
For now this is all yet another reminder that constitutional amendments are not magic wands. You can’t just bop Donald Trump on the head and say “14th Amendment” and have him fall through a trap door. No matter how clearly the 14th Amendment might read to you, that doesn’t matter. It only matters what the courts think the 14th Amendment says. And so far we’re seeing that the courts largely have a different interpretation of the 14th Amendment than the “Trump is disqualified” crowd does. I did try to warn you not to expect much from this movement. It was always going to be a mixed bag at best. But if Maine does happen, that would be nice.
