Donald Trump is about to get his wings clipped

| 9:09 am EDT August 11, 2023
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Just about an hour from now, a federal judge will hold a hearing with Jack Smith’s team and Donald Trump’s attorneys (Trump himself was not invited) to discuss a protective order barring Trump from icicly discussing sensitive aspects of the case.

Based on the filings that both sides have made thus far, it’s nearly a given that the judge will end up issuing the protective order – if not at the end of the hearing, then shortly thereafter. But that’s just the beginning.

Remember that a protective order is not a gag order. For the moment the discussion is about whether to order a protective order, which will bar Trump from publicly discussing the evidence against him that all defendants are given as part of the discovery process. But with Jack Smith already citing Trump’s recent social media posts in his request for a protective order, today’s hearing could easily spill over into a discussion about an eventual gag order, which would prevent Trump publicly discussing the case at all.

Judges don’t like to hit defendants with gag orders, and generally won’t do it unless a defendant forces the issue. It’s simply done in incrementally escalating steps, in proportion to the defendant’s behavior, prompting a lot of confused observers to think that “nothing is being is done.” But when defendants do force the issue, judges absolutely crack down on them for it. Trump will be treated no differently than any other defendant in that regard. The court system simply does not give a damn that Trump used to be President, or that he’d like to run for President again.

So even as we head into today’s hearing with a near-100% chance of a protective order being granted, the more revealing part of the hearing will be the groundwork that Jack Smith and/or the judge might lay today with regard to an eventual gag order. It’ll then be interesting to watch whether Trump immediately violates those terms, or backs down. That’ll be his choice. But if Trump does end up forcing the judge to hit him with a gag order, and if Trump then violates the gag order, he’s going to spend the rest of 2023 in jail while awaiting his trial date, which Jack Smith just proposed for January 2nd, 2024.

If Donald Trump wants to keep using social media to prove how defiant he can be, he’ll end up having a very long time to think about it while sitting in a jail cell. And in spite of all the contrarian hot takes out there, Trump cannot magically help his 2024 prospects by getting himself thrown in a cell right now. All he would do is silence himself and make himself irrelevant. So if he wants to go that route, then more power to him. It’ll just mean that we can all move on from him sooner.