Turns out the Democrats haven’t necessarily lost the Senate

| 7:54 pm EST November 4, 2020
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Decision Desk just called the Michigan Senate race for Gary Peters. This opens up a new scenario. I don’t want to get your hopes up too much about this just yet. But David Perdue is at 50.28% in Georgia. If he drops below 50%, it goes to a runoff between Perdue and Jon Ossoff.

The other Georgia Senate race is already heading to a runoff between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler . If we win both runoffs in January, the Senate will be split 50-50.

If Biden wins and the Senate is 50-50, then Kamala Harris becomes the tiebreaker for every vote. In such case the Democrats would control the Senate, and Chuck Schumer, not Mitch McConnell, would be majority leader. But again, one thing at a time. It’s a lot of “ifs” right now. What are the odds the Democrats win both runoffs in Georgia? I don’t know. And if Perdue remains above 50% in Georgia, his race won’t go to a runoff anyway.

There is also still perhaps a small chance that the Democrats could pull out narrow Senate wins in North Carolina and/or Alaska. Neither race has been called yet. But right now the best bet is probably the Georgia special election route.