Credit where it’s due
When the new CNN poll yesterday had Joe Biden up by just four points, even as the new Washington Post poll had Joe Biden up by twelve points, I pointed out that none of this told us anything new. Biden’s lead in the polling averages has been roughly eight points for awhile, and when you plugged in these two new polls, his lead was still at eight points.
My fear was that cable news would do what it often does, which is to take the most outlandish poll number of the bunch, and report it as if it were the only poll. The media often does this in the name of shock value, because it’s good for ratings. After all, it’s boring when you report that Biden’s lead in the polling averages is still holding steady. It’s honest, but it’s boring – and boring is generally bad for ratings.
But credit where it’s due. When the new polls came out yesterday, MSNBC didn’t merely have one of its hosts play up the four-point poll as if it were the only poll. Instead, MSNBC actually allowed Steve Kornacki to present all of the new polls within context of each other. He pointed out that the four-point poll was an outlier. He even put the words “AVERAGE BIDEN +8” in all capital letters in the middle of the screen.
This is how you report on poll numbers. As Kornacki explained, the polling averages only ended up being off by about two points in 2016 (they had Hillary Clinton winning by four points, and she won by two points). When you win by four points or eight points, the electoral college doesn’t come into play, like it does when it’s a one or two point race. If the media would report on the polls more accurately, people would have more faith in the polls, because they would see that the polling averages are usually proven correct within a couple of points. It’s only the media’s obsession with misrepresenting the polls that leaves the public with a bad taste in their mouths.
