Could we be heading for the first landslide win in the 21st century?
First, a couple of caveats. There is no guarantee that current upward trends will continue, no matter how robust they may appear. Second, we must never, not for a moment, not for a second, take our feet off the gas. Third, we don’t know what surprises October might bring us. But with those warnings out of the way, could it be conceivable, is it possible, that the Kamala Harris and Tim Walz ticket could be headed for the first landslide win in the 21st century? Some polls and some pundits seem to think so.
Recent polls have shifted in Kamala’s favour to a startling extent. Morning Consult has Harris at 51, Trump 45. Big Village, Harris 51, Trump 43. Monmouth University, Harris 49, Trump 45. The Harris Poll, Harris 52, Trump 48.
Fully 45% of white supporters are for Harris, the highest number for a Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976! What’s more, for the first time Kamala Harris holds an unprecedented net favorability of .5%, the first candidate in either party to get their heads above water in this election.
This could all be part of the “debate bounce,” the effects of which we could be feeling for a few weeks now as details of the debate continue to filter down through the population. But that bounce should not ever be discounted. Harris beat Trump so badly in the debate that it could provide her with the ultimate knockout punch.
What’s more, Northwestern University’s Thomas Miller, a data scientist there, predicts a Harris landslide not on polls but on the prices established by Americans wagering their own dollars on the candidates. “Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” Miller recently told Fortune magazine. And it’s not just the fact that they’re betting on Harris that’s encouraging, it’s that the size of those bets is dramatically increasing.
Miller is predicting that the Harris electoral map could resemble the 1964 map where President Lyndon B Johnson defeated Senator Barry Goldwater with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or where President Bill Clinton beat Senator Bob Dole with 379 electoral votes. “It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” Miller said of his forecasting model. In November we could be looking at a very blue electoral college map.
Naturally, the most hotly contested battleground states — which include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — will ultimately decide which candidate crosses the 270-vote threshold. Miller is predicting a clean sweep of all those battleground states for Harris. Again, thanks to how the actual betting is going. (While I’m not going to bet, I am proud to say that next week I will be mailing my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz on behalf of my last state of occupancy — the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania!)
Another factor rarely considered are stealth votes. Many Republicans who are secretly sick and tired of Trump may publicly proclaim allegiance to Trump but will secretly vote for Harris. The public trend we are seeing, with the likes of Dick Cheney coming out for Harris, could be symptomatic of a swelling underground phenomenon. Some Republicans who are fearful of personal or even physical reprisals may be reluctant to tell the truth — even to pollsters.
Finally, I would like to set aside a moment to praise the brilliant organisation “Democrats Abroad.” I have several recent missed calls and voicemails from Washington DC on my mobile phone, compliments of Democrats Abroad. Since 2016 their volunteers have been hugely helpful to me in securing my mail-in ballots and answering my questions. They are a dedicated, diligent, smart and effective group of people, and I am grateful for the work they have done in securing votes for our candidates from overseas constituents like myself. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.