Colorado removes Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot – here’s what happens (and doesn’t happen) next
All along I’ve been cautioning everyone not to get too excited about the prospect of Donald Trump being removed from the 2024 ballot under the 14th Amendment. The only states currently considering it are states where Trump has no chance of getting any electoral votes to begin with. And it’s hard to imagine the U.S. Supreme Court allowing such a thing to stand.
That said, the Colorado Supreme Court did in fact rule today that Trump is disqualified from the 2024 ballot because he incited an insurrection against the United States. As I said going into this, Trump was never going to win Colorado to begin with. So today’s ruling has literally zero impact on 2024 electoral college math. And while I hope I’m wrong, I don’t see this U.S. Supreme Court allowing the Colorado decision to remain intact. Even though the U.S. Supreme Court has declined to help Trump with his criminal problems, it’s difficult to imagine them agreeing to allow Trump to be removed from the ballot outright. We are, after all, talking about the likes of Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. And no, there’s no legal mechanism for forcing Thomas to recuse himself.
The proponents of the “Trump is disqualified” movement are hoping that if the U.S. Supreme Court does allow a ruling like this to stand, it’ll open the door to getting Trump removed from the ballot in additional states. But those would still be the kinds of states that he wasn’t going to win anyway. So like I said, this doesn’t really impact Trump’s 2024 prospects.
But if nothing else, today’s ruling – though it has no mathematical impact on the election and will have a hard time surviving the Supreme Court – still serves to add to Trump’s misery. And it provides us with the catharsis and validation of having a state Supreme Court rule that Donald Trump really did incite an insurrection against the United States. So have your fun with this ruling. Just keep in mind that it’s not going to decide the outcome of the 2024 election.
It’s still far more likely that Donald Trump’s criminal trials will have an impact on the election. Trump will be convicted in at least one trial before the Republican National Convention, and likely in multiple trials before Election Day. Trump being on his way to prison will force the Republicans to think about whether they really want to waste their 2024 nomination on him.
