China just made a Ukraine announcement that’s bad news for Vladimir Putin
Just days ago, it appeared that the government of China had opportunistically decided to side with Vladimir Putin with regard to his invasion of Ukraine. The belief was that as long as Russia was being the world’s number one misbehaver, China could get away with doing anything it wanted, so long as it wasn’t quite as egregious as Russia’s actions. But what a difference a few days can make.
Earlier today, even as things were beginning to look ugly for Putin on the world stage, China announced that President Xi Jinping it had just called up Putin and privately encouraged him to begin peace negotiations with Ukraine. Then hours later, China announced that the “sovereignty” of Ukraine should be respected. Then, in a United Nations Security Council vote, China declined to support Russia, instead abstaining on a vote to condemn Russia’s actions.
So what’s going on? The Chinese government is opportunistic by nature, and will always do whatever it thinks is best for itself. Over the past sixteen hours, things have taken a particularly ugly turn for Putin. His Russian army is struggling in Ukraine, where it’s met fierce Ukrainian resistance fighters. The West has hit Putin, Russia, and its oligaches with unprecedented (and still escalating) financial sanctions.
In short, this just isn’t going well for Putin on any level. China has apparently decided that its most opportunistic move is to begin publicly pushing back against Putin. This further weakens Putin’s stance, and potentially puts China in a position to benefit by playing peacemaker. China could also potentially seek concessions from the West in exchange for continuing to sabotage Putin.
It’s not that the Chinese government can be trusted to do the right thing. It can’t. But that’s not relevant in these situations. What matters is that the Chinese government can be trusted selfishly do what it thinks is best for itself. And it now appears to be betting against Putin, in a way that not only reveals how weak Putin’s footing is, but also further weakens Putin’s footing. This pushback may not prompt Putin to give up and go home. But it helps ensure a bad outcome for Putin one way or the other.
