Blowout stakes
Many of you are saying that the excitement and momentum we’re seeing right now for Kamala Harris in 2024 is the biggest thing in politics since Obama in 2008. But I’m hearing from people who helped run the Obama 2008 campaign who say that this movement is even more off the charts. And the numbers are bearing that out. But we have to remember how numbers work in a presidential election.
National polls are now showing that the race is either tied or Kamala Harris is slightly ahead. And Kamala’s favorability rating has spiked by eight points in one new national poll. It’s only been a week, and the momentum is continuing to grow, so you can expect Kamala’s numbers to keep getting better. She might come out of the convention with a three, five, or even seven point lead. Which would be remarkable given that three to five points is considered something of a blowout, and seven points is a landslide.
And that’s the double edged sword. In a presidential election it’s really hard to get ahead by more than a few points. Yet you can win by a few points and still lose. President Biden won the 2020 election by five points. If Biden had only won by three points, Trump would have won the Electoral College.
So you see the difference between being ahead by three points or five points or seven points. It’s not just about running up the score or making a statement. It’s about being far enough ahead that nothing – not an Electoral College fluke, not an October Surprise, not a Supreme Court ploy, can add up to enough to wipe out that lead. It’s why you want to be ahead by five or six points, not by two or three points. And it’s why our momentum must continue.
Over the past week, the thing that Kamala Harris has spoken about most frequently is her desire to see all of you sign up to be volunteers for her campaign. There’s a reason for that. A one time donation is great; it shows your support right now in this moment. But if you sign up to volunteer, you’re agreeing to bust your hump as much as you reasonably can for the rest of the election cycle. That’s how you make sure your candidate gets ahead and stays ahead.
It’s about door knocking. It’s about phone banking. It’s about driving voter registration, either in your personal circle or remotely. It’s about sending voter registration postcards. It’s about signing up with an activist group of your choice so you can be steered in the right direction. And if you can’t do any of that yourself, then it’s about you encouraging others to step up and volunteer. Send them this link.
Wear a Kamala 2024 t-shirt. Put a Kamala 2024 sign in your yard. Check in with your nonpartisan friends and relatives to see if they’re warming to Kamala, and see if you can put them over the top. Don’t waste your time arguing with Trump’s base, they’re not changing their minds. But there’s an ocean of people out there who aren’t highly political and haven’t yet thought about whether to vote for Kamala or stay home. Find them. Get them on board. If you don’t know how to reach such people, keep speaking up on social media so people will see it.
Again, this is about rolling up our sleeves and making sure that Kamala Harris is ahead in the polls by a dominant five points, and not an uncomfortably narrow two points. That requires not just another week like the one we just finished, but another hundred days like the week we just had. These will be the most important hundred days of your political life. And it starts now. Not tomorrow, but today. We have the momentum and the wind at our backs. If we put in the work, we will win. Now let’s go win this 🙂
