New shakeup in 2024 House race ratings
Even as we all wait for the DOJ’s criminal indictment of Donald Trump for January 6th to happen, it’s becoming more clear by the day that Trump is finished. He’ll go on criminal trial at least four times before the election, on a hundred or more felony counts, and if he’s convicted on any one of those counts in any one of those trials he’ll go to prison. But even as Trump becomes more irrelevant with regard to the 2024 election, there is big 2024 news elsewhere.
Palmer Report has long harped on the fact that majority control of the House always comes down primarily to the ten or twenty “Toss up” races that are destined to be super close contests, and to a lesser degree the “Lean Democrat” and “Lean Republican” races that can occasionally be picked off by the other party. To that end, some of those races just got new ratings.
We’ve been relying primarily on the ratings issued by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has had the strongest track record over the past several election cycles. To that end, Cook just changed the ratings on a number of House races for 2024 – including some changes that will impact our strategy.
For instance, Cook previously had the Colorado 3rd District race between House Republican Lauren Boebert and Democratic candidate Adam Frisch rated as “Lean Republican.” Palmer Report has long predicted that Cook would end up shifting this race to Toss up, and that has now indeed happened. Frisch came within about 500 votes of defeating Boebert last time, and has good odds of winning this time, though it’ll be close.
Cook has also shifted another Republican-held seat from Lean Republican to Toss up. House Republican Ken Calvert is now officially in danger of losing his seat in 2024 to Democratic candidate Will Rollins, who came within a few points of defeating Calvert last time.
House Democrat Greg Landsman’s reelection effort in Ohio has been shifted from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat” which is good news for him. That’ll still likely be a fairly close contest, but the Democrats now have the upper hand in that race.
It’s mostly good news for House Democrats, with one exception. House Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, who’s seeking reelection in the Texas 34th district, just saw his race downgraded from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” It’s a reminder that races do shift, and we have to remain on top of these things. Gonzalez still has the upper hand as far as getting reelected, but he’ll probably end up needing our support when we get a little closer to the election cycle.
Remember, it’s your job to actively get behind the Democrats who are running in the close competitive House races. If you have money, donate. If you have time, volunteer. If you don’t have time or money, use your social media accounts to promote these candidates, so your followers with time and money will see it and contribute. As we’ve seen, House toss-up races can come down to just a handful of votes. Those of you reading this article can change the outcomes of several House races just by choosing to get involved. Let’s choose to do it starting right now, and go win the House!
