Asking the wrong question

| 8:30 pm EDT September 29, 2020
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The question is not whether Donald Trump’s worsening scandals will drive his numbers even lower. He’s already at around 40% in the polls, which is basically zero in a presidential race. Both sides almost automatically get 40% without even trying. Trump is on track to lose badly.

The question is whether Trump’s worsening scandals will prevent him from being able to improve his terrible numbers. Joe Biden’s long running eight point lead in the polling averages is a blowout number by modern presidential election standards. It would be the largest margin of victory since 1996. Eight points would likely translate to a massive electoral college win.

If you’re concerned that Joe Biden’s year-long eight point lead might shrink, or that it might not be enough to overcome cheating and suppression, then your recourse is to phone bank, volunteer, and register people to vote. Sufficient turnout always overcomes any cheating effort.

To be clear, the 2020 numbers look absolutely nothing like 2016. Hillary’s lead on this date was three and a half points, which was a small lead. Biden’s lead is eight points, which is a large lead. There’s simply no comparison. But go do some phone banking for Biden anyway, and let’s truly make this a blowout win just in case.