Joe Biden officially wins Arizona, clarifying his path to victory

| 3:09 am EST November 4, 2020
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Hours ago, Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden, before any other major news outlet had done so. Donald Trump and his campaign threw a fit about it, insisting that it wasn’t true. But now the Associated Press has called Arizona for Biden, making it official.

This means Biden has officially flipped a Trump 2016 state. It also makes Biden’s math a lot easier. If Biden’s lead holds up in Nevada, then he’ll only need Michigan and Wisconsin in order to get to 270. That means Biden can win even without Pennsylvania or Georgia.

This is a big deal. As the mail-in ballots start getting properly counted, the current “red mirage” numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will start to unskew. We expect Joe Biden will pull ahead more quickly in Michigan and Wisconsin, and win by a bigger margin, than in Pennsylvania.

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