Donald Trump’s approval rating numbers go into the toilet
Donald Trump continues to insist that his approval rating numbers are fairly decent and stable by quoting the laughably illegitimate Rasmussen poll – but the numbers from respectable polling outlets are telling a very different story. Over the past two weeks we’ve seen Paul Manafort convicted of eight felonies, Michael Cohen naming Trump an unindicted co-conspirator, and numerous accusations from Trump’s own staffers that he’s mentally incompetent and dangerously deranged. These events have had a significant downward impact on Trump’s approval rating in multiple new major polls.
There are two key things to keep in mind when looking at the polls. The first is that you want to look at the current average of the major polls, as well as which direction each poll is heading in, as opposed to simply looking at any one current poll in a vacuum. The second is that modern presidential approval ratings generally exist within a range of 30% to 60%; you rarely see any president drift above or below that range. So it’s fair to think of 30% as being essentially zero, and 60% as being essentially a hundred. So what are Trump’s new numbers?
The new CNN poll says that Donald Trump’s approval rating is now at 37%. That’s a drop of seven points from August. Quinnipiac now has Trump at 38%, down three points from August. Gallup has Trump at 41%, down one point from August. The Economist has Trump at 43%, down three points from August. Reuters has Trump at 42%, down three points from August. Emerson has Trump at 38%, down five points from July, the last time it was conducted.
That’s an average drop of around four and a half points over the past month. Again, that’s within a de facto thirty point range, so 4.5 points is a significant drop. It means Donald Trump has begun losing a large number of his supporters, despite the persistent myth that he could do literally anything wrong and still not lose anyone. Trump will never drop to zero, but keep in mind that Richard Nixon still had an approval rating in the twenties at the time he was being ousted, and those remaining supporters couldn’t save him.
