ALERT: Florida may be in play after all

For awhile now I’ve been getting asked whether Florida is in play. My answer has always been the same: “not yet, but ask me in another week or two.” The numbers have continued to grow more positive there for the Democrats – not to a point of being fully competitive, but to a point of being a must-watch state. I’ve promised you all along that if at any point Florida did come into play in the 2024 election, I’d help lead the charge in trying to win it. The thing is, I think we’re basically there.

It’s not just that one new poll has the Senate race in Florida within a single point. I never take any one poll seriously. There are way too many non-competitive races where one poll shows it supposedly tied, but five other polls reveal it to be a ten point blowout. Far too often the media will hype that one poll, while ignoring the scores of polls that say the opposite.

But there is something going on down in Florida. The various polls conducted in the Senate race in Florida over the past five weeks have shown Republican Senator Rick Scott ahead by one point, three points, five points, one point, three points, and four points. That averages out to about three points, which is roughly the margin of error.

I always like to point out that while we can rally behind a candidate and move the needle by three points, we can’t move the needle by five or ten points. So I’m only ever interested in getting behind candidates who are already within three points of winning. And now Democratic Senator candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is indeed behind by just three points in the polling averages.

But the main reason I’m ready to dive into the Senate race in Florida is that a voice from far away told me to. Democratic Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii, a very savvy guy in a very safe seat who helps do a lot of fundraising for Democratic Senators in not-so-safe seats, tweeted this on Thursday: “We can win the Senate seat in Florida with money and we cannot without it.” That’s the tipping point for me. If Senator Schatz says that the Senate race in Florida is in play, then I’m ready to dive in.

So let’s do this. For starters, if you’re on Twitter, you’ll want to follow Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, turn on alerts for her account, and retweet her every time she says something worthwhile about her campaign. You’ll also want to follow Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. If you’re looking for a place to donate, send it to her campaign. And no matter where you live, sign up on her campaign website so you can get involved. Even if you’re not in Florida, there are things you can do from your living room to help Debbie Mucarsel-Powell win.

Keep in mind that the Democrats are still the underdog in Florida. I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up inappropriately high. Even with all the good news of late, we have maybe a 35% chance of winning this Senate seat? I don’t love the fact that this race is still rated “Likely Republican” by the respected Cook Political Report. And don’t get me started on DeSantis’ voter suppression and cheating tactics in Florida, which are probably good for a point or two. But given the nature of the 2024 Senate map, and the good news coming out of the Florida race, I’m ready to dive in. How about you?