Donald Trump’s no-win scenario just came home to roost
Back when Donald Trump was publicly hinting that he wouldn’t debate Kamala Harris, Palmer Report pointed out that he didn’t really have a choice. He was firmly behind in the polls, and while a debate was unlikely to go well for him, he pretty much had to roll the dice on it. The alternative was to skip the debate, look bad and fall further behind for having skipped it, and remain on track to lose. Sure enough, Trump went through with the debate. And sure enough, it went poorly for him. So now what’s he supposed to do?
CNN has now sent out invitations for what would be the second debate between Trump and Harris, and the third debate of the general election. Harris has immediately and enthusiastically accepted the invitation, and her campaign is quickly pivoting to asking why Trump hasn’t also accepted the invitation.
I don’t pretend to know whether Trump will end up doing this debate. Last time it was an easy prediction to make. This time it’s more complicated. Trump didn’t just lose the previous debate to Kamala, he lost it in historic and embarrassing fashion. He’s very lucky he only fell about a half a point further behind in the polling averages as a result of losing the debate. He knows, in painfully visceral fashion, that he’s not up to the task of going head to head with her. And yet he’s four and a half points behind in the polling averages with only a month and a half to go, and he’s clearly out of ideas for how to turn things around.
As much as Trump would rather spend an hour punching himself in the face than have to get on stage with Kamala Harris again, he might not have a choice. As low percentage of a play as another debate would be, his alternative is to look like a chicken for refusing to do it, keep falling further behind in the polls, likely lose the election, and go to prison. Would Trump really rather go to prison for the rest of his life than have to debate Kamala again? Maybe. But that’s the scenario he’s stuck chewing on right now.
Again, Kamala Harris would very likely win a second debate, and Trump knows it. So do his handlers, who will probably play a bigger role in making such a decision than Trump himself will. But what other option does Trump have? Even if there’s a five percent chance that Harris has an off night and Trump manages to win the debate, doesn’t Trump have to consider taking those odds? It’s not as if he has any other avenues for getting back in the game.
We’ll see what happens. I’m not making any predictions as to whether Trump will ultimately end up doing the debate. I also put no stock in whatever Trump is currently saying publicly about whether he’ll do the debate (he tried to make us believe he wouldn’t do the last one). But the real story here is that Trump is in such a no-win situation, he has to at least consider doing a debate that he knows he’d very likely lose.
