Republican Mark Robinson just imploded, and Donald Trump now has a serious North Carolina problem
Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for Governor of North Carolina, has long been controversial and long been unpopular. He was always on track to likely lose his election, and possibly by a big enough margin to depress Republican turnout for Donald Trump in the state. Given that North Carolina has turned into one of the key swing states in the 2024 presidential election, Robinson has spent the past month steadily becoming a real problem for Trump. Then today happened.
CNN is reporting today that Mark Robinson allegedly participated in an adult forum and allegedly stated a liking for transgender porn. This would normally be no one’s business, but Robinson has built his political career on far right anti-LGBT stances. Robinson also allegedly referred to himself as a “Black Nazi” and wanted to bring slavery back, and also allegedly spied on women’s locker rooms in his youth. Now, to pile on, Politico is reporting that Robinson allegedly participated in the Ashley Madison site.
Mark Robinson is toast. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball immediately changed its rating of the North Carolina Governor race from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.” But this doesn’t just impact Robinson’s own race. Donald Trump and the Republican Party of North Carolina are reportedly trying to pressure Robinson into immediately dropping out. To be clear, dropping out this late in the game would be tantamount to forfeiting. Robinson would remain on the ballot, and the best the Republicans could hope for is that any votes for Robinson would go to a replacement candidate who’s not on the ballot. That’s… not a way to win. But Trump and the GOP are just that desperate to make Robinson and his scandals disappear from the headlines.
Whether Robinson drops out or not, his scandals are likely to cost Donald Trump some votes. It’s called “reverse coattails.” These are people who were barely motivated to show up and vote Republican to begin with, and the Robinson scandal gives them the excuse they’d been looking for to stay home. Even if the Robinson debacle only costs Trump a small number of votes, North Carolina is likely to be a very close contest in the presidential election. The Robinson debacle alone could cost Trump North Carolina, and without the state, Trump has very little hope of finding a pathway to 270 electoral votes.
So yeah, Donald Trump has a Mark Robinson problem. Trump also has a North Carolina problem. But the state is still going to be close. If you live in or near North Carolina, now is the time to sign up with the North Carolina Democratic Party so you can get involved down the stretch. You should also follow and retweet North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton on Twitter in order to help spread the word. And wherever you live, sign up with the Kamala Harris campaign so you can make a difference.
