There’s something in the water

| 9:09 am EDT September 17, 2024
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When I was recently visiting family in a rural area of a red state, I saw a “Harris for President” bumper sticker on a car on the highway. It naturally gave me hope. Of course one bumper sticker is far too tiny of a data point to tell us anything about the larger picture, and if you look up the numbers, Trump is going to win that particular state by twenty points. But at what point is a data point large enough and reliable enough to mean that something is indeed going on?

You know how I feel about individual polls. You always try to look at the polling averages, not any one poll. But in the states that aren’t going to be in play in a presidential election, you don’t see enough polling to form an average. One poll is often all you get. In such case you have to take any such poll with all the grains of salt you can find. But when I saw polling this past week that claims Trump is only ahead by four points in Alaska and Iowa, I couldn’t help but perk up.

Do I think Kamala Harris is going to win Alaska or Iowa? No I don’t, for the same reason I don’t expect Trump to win any states where he’s polling four points behind. But the notion that Harris is this close to being competitive in these kinds of red states? That’s remarkable. These kinds of states don’t quite have enough Democrats in them to be competitive. So this kind of red state polling points to severely depressed turnout for Trump among Republicans and conservatives, strong support among moderates for Harris, and at least some conservative Republicans crossing party lines for Harris.

It really makes me feel like there’s something in the water – and in a good way. The three indicators you look for in an election are, in no particular order, who’s winning in the polls, who’s winning in fundraising, and who’s winning in terms of enthusiasm. With fifty days to go, Kamala Harris has all three. That’s something special. We have a rare opportunity here to run up the score in a way that not only fends off any electoral flukes, but also sends a clear message that this is our time, our country, our future, and that the Trump era is over. So let’s do this.