The invisible enemy
If you are fond of chocolate, and I was no exception in my pre-vegan days, you already know about the idea of “hysteresis,” even if you’re unfamiliar with the word. After chocolate melts it never quite tastes the same, even if you manage to resolidify it in the fridge.
There’s a reason for that. Chocolate doesn’t merely change shape when it melts, it changes its fundamental crystalline structure. The change that happens when the temperature increases will not reverse when the temperature decreases again. So two pieces of chocolate, one previously melted and resolidified and one not, do not share the same initial condition, hence the same taste, even if they currently share the same temperature. That’s hysteresis.
So what does melting chocolate have to do with, shall we say, the price of tea in China? There’s similarly a hysteresis in certain climate change contexts where temperature increases do not reverse when temperatures decrease again.
One example is the melting of permafrost. Once it melts, permafrost releases climate change-inducing methane gas that won’t magically reverse even if it freezes again. Another example is melting glaciers that took tens of thousands of years to form. Those glaciers won’t crawl back up mountains and reform once temperatures are restored.
Another example is there is evidence that the climate-stabilising AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) in the Atlantic Ocean is slowing down, and could trigger an abrupt and potentially devastating change in the world’s climate all by itself. Once that happens it will take centuries for the AMOC to restore itself, if it ever does.
The clear message from climate science is that much of the damage we have done to the environment is permanent, as far as our lifetimes are concerned. We can’t fix it even if the world were to suddenly achieve a zero carbon footprint tomorrow.
This is not an excuse for giving up. Now that we know that the damage we are doing is irreversible we need to act immediately to prevent further irreversible damage. The extent to which the nightmare we are silently preparing for our future selves depends on our choices today. This knowledge should galvanise us to action. So why doesn’t it?
One problem, perhaps the biggest problem, is that climate change isn’t merely a scientific fact, it’s also, tragically, a politically charged subject. The passions on both sides of the political fence have led to unexpected results. One result is that climate scientists have become reluctant to be categorical in their predictions, fearing reprisals from conservatives who believe it’s a hoax on the one hand and igniting passions of climate activists on the other. So they largely offer up a pablum of carefully greenwashed weasel words and optimism. They are afraid to be publicly explicit about the peril we are in.
The lines were clearly drawn in the recent presidential debate. When asked about climate change, Kamala Harris made it clear that she regarded it as a “very real” and dire issue. Donald Trump changed the subject to whine about how Kamala hurt his feelings. This underscores how this 78 year old pathetic man is completely indifferent to the danger we’re in, and Kamala Harris is the only sane choice.
This is why Kamala must win. Failure is not an option. While it’s clear that, if elected, Donald Trump will destroy the world’s oldest democracy, he will also let our planet, our only home, become inhospitable to our continued existence. He doesn’t care, because he’ll be dead when that happens. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.