So now what?
Once Joe Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris near-immediately secured near-unanimous support for the Democratic nomination, it was fairly easy to predict what would come next. Harris would hit the ground running and rise in the polls. Donald Trump, who is deep into cognitive decline, would begin to implode. Trump, by virtue of falling behind, would have to try debating Harris. And Harris would win the debate in dominant fashion. This was all easily foreseeable, and here we are. But what now?
This is where it gets interesting. Harris quickly opened a four point lead in the national polling averages, but then her national momentum stalled out. Even as she’s continued to pull incrementally ahead in some key swing states, the national polls haven’t moved in a month. But then Kamala Harris went on live national television and handed Trump the humiliating defeat of a lifetime – and this is a guy who’s lost several trials and had seven bankruptcies.
So now what? Do the national polls now shift so quickly and sharply in Kamala Harris’ favor that the race is suddenly out of reach? It’s possible, but don’t bank on it. Does Kamala’s polling lead start growing in slow and incremental fashion instead? That’s more likely, but nothing is a given. Does the debate do nothing to boost Kamala’s lead, just like the Democratic National Convention paradoxically did nothing to boost her lead? And with the polls being so out of whack, should we be using them as any sort of measuring stick to begin with?
All we know for now is that Kamala Harris, who was already winning this election, just crushed Donald Trump in what will probably end up being the only debate they have. All possible logic says she’ll open up an incrementally bigger lead. But when the losing candidate spends the debate talking about eating dogs and cats, the usual logic may not apply.
In any case, while we’re waiting for the polls and prognosticators to sort out the post-debate landscape, I have a better idea: let’s not wait. Kamala Harris is coming out of this debate with clear and contagious momentum. But momentum is only of any value if you capitalize on it. Kamala is doing her part. We have to do ours. Now is the time to sign up with the Kamala Harris campaign and get involved. Let Kamala be Kamala. Let the polls be the polls. And let us be wise enough to jump in and do our part.
