Here comes the shift
Sometimes you just have to laugh. For the past month one poll after another has shown Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump by anywhere from one to eight points, with the polling averages showing Harris with a three to four point lead. So of course the New York Times – which has somehow become one of the least trustworthy publications in all of politics – managed to produce a poll on Sunday showing Trump supposedly in the lead. Because of course. But that’s not the story here.
The story here is that even as swing states like North Carolina and Georgia have shifted slightly in Kamala Harris’ favor in recent weeks, national polling has stagnated. And that’s fine, given that Kamala was ahead when the polls stopped moving. But tomorrow night’s debate is likely to change that. It’s a big opportunity for Kamala to get national polling moving in her direction again. The debate is also Trump’s last best hope of turning things around in his favor.
Of course Kamala is going to outshine Trump in the debate without question. That’s not the issue. The question is by how much. Trump has the benefit of going into this debate with perversely low expectations, and so there’s a chance that he could end up looking fairly good (to borrow a West Wing reference) just by not accidentally setting his podium on fire.
So we’ll see what happens tomorrow. But even if Kamala firmly wins the debate and goes from four points ahead in the national polling averages to let’s say six points, so what? That’s still not the kind of lead that you can sleep on. Now more than ever, this is the time to roll up your sleeves and get involved. Donate. Volunteer. Phone bank. Knock on doors. Send postcards. Do something to help Kamala grow her lead, rather than sitting back and merely hoping her lead grows. Sign up here.
