The night before Christmas

| 9:09 am EDT September 6, 2024
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After Kamala Harris saw a slow and steady rise in the national polls throughout her first month in the race, it’s now fair to say that things have plateaued. Harris has had a roughly four point lead in the national polling averages for a couple weeks now. The bad news for her is that her numbers aren’t going up any further. The good news for her is that her numbers haven’t gone back down. This wasn’t a temporary “bump.” She’s now firmly ahead. But what happens next?

We are in fact seeing movement in polling in some swing states. That’s to be expected, given the heavy focus that Harris and her campaign have been putting on the swing states of late. Kamala is now either tied or slightly favored in North Carolina. She’s either tied or slightly behind in Georgia. These are states that weren’t even in play for the Democrats a month ago.

If you’re wondering when or if the national polls might start moving again, you’ll probably have to wait until the debate. That’s the next time a national audience will tune in and care about the election. And so there’s a lot riding on it. Donald Trump is four points down and desperately needs to find a way to win this debate if he wants to get back in the game. The only thing going for him is that expectations are so low for him, he might look “good” just by not tripping over his shoelaces. Kamala Harris is firmly ahead in the national polls but has stalled, and this debate is probably her single biggest chance to start climbing again.

Meanwhile, even as we await the debate, Kamala Harris and her running mate and top surrogates are out there barnstorming the swing states in energetic and strategic fashion. Donald Trump and his running mate and surrogates are all sitting home, seemingly unaware that there’s an election going on. And so the swing state polling averages may continue moving even as the national polling averages don’t.

And really, polls are just polls. Elections are won by those who get off the couch and make an effort in the real world – and we’re not just talking about the candidates. Hop on over to go.kamalaharris.com and find a way to get involved. You’ll be glad you did.