Kamala Harris just gave us our answer about Florida
The question I get asked most frequently is whether Florida is in play. My response is always “Not currently but ask me again in two weeks.” My answer isn’t meant to be cagey. It’s just that on the whole, the fundamentals say it’s still not in play despite Kamala’s recent gains there – but it’s getting to a point where it could conceivably come into play. Like any analyst worth his salt, I need to see more data points. More specifically, I’ve been waiting to see when or if Kamala goes to Florida.
Why does that matter? Presidential candidates and their parties have access to the kind of detailed demographic data that allows their internal polling and analysis to be more accurate than any public polling that you and I get to see. Kamala Harris is in a far better position than we are when it comes to knowing or if a given state is coming into play. So when she traveled to North Carolina a couple weeks ago for a major rally, it was a sign that she thought it was about to come into play. Sure enough, she’s now tied there. And now that she’s doing a lengthy bus tour in Georgia, it’s a sign that she thinks that state is also coming into play.
In contrast, Kamala is not going to Florida. Not yet anyway. But she has announced something with regard to Florida. She’s rolling out a reproductive rights bus tour that will visit all fifty states and is kicking off in – you guessed it – Florida. But Kamala won’t be on that tour. Instead she’s sending people like Doug Emhoff and Amy Klobuchar.
In other words Kamala Harris is now sending key surrogates to Florida in high profile fashion, in the hope of putting the state into play. My guess is she’ll look at what the big Florida surrogate visit does to her internal numbers in Florida and use it to further evaluate whether Florida is indeed going to come into play.
But like I said, I’m just guessing as to the interpretation. Kamala Harris has given us our answer about what she thinks of her current prospects in Florida, and left us to try to interpret what her answer means. If Kamala decides to go to Florida two or three weeks from now, that’ll be a strong indicator that she does indeed think it can come into play.
Meanwhile, if you live in Florida, there’s no need for you to wait. Sign up now on Kamala Harris’ website and find out what events and volunteer opportunities her campaign already has going on in Florida. And help her campaign promote the bus tour on your social media pages. If you’re a Floridian, instead of asking me or anyone else whether Florida is in play, roll up your sleeves and try to put it in play. The work you do in your state right now, even if it doesn’t get you over the finish line in 2024, can help lay the groundwork for flipping Florida in 2028. That goes for those of you in Texas as well.
As for the rest of you around the nation, Kamala is making clear that her current priorities are North Carolina and Georgia, along with the old standbys of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, so let’s focus on winning those seven states for now. If and when it’s time to expand our national efforts beyond those seven states, Kamala will tell us as much with her actions.
