There’s the confirmation we were looking for

| 10:30 am EDT August 9, 2024
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On Thursday I wrote about how the national polling averages were showing Kamala Harris with a very narrow lead over Donald Trump, but her best poll number (from Marquette) had her up by six points. You don’t ever look at your best poll number and presume that’s where the race is. But when you have the momentum, you can look at your best current poll number as a potential indicator of where things might be heading. Specifically I said that we should watch for any additional national polls that show Harris up by a sizable number, and not just a point or two.

Sure enough, while Donald Trump was busy setting himself on fire for attention on Thursday with one of the worst press conferences of all time, the latest IPSOS poll was released and showed Harris up by five points over Trump. This is the kind of confirmation you look for. One new national poll has Kamala up six points, another new national poll has Kamala up five points.

As I keep saying, you have to look at the polling averages if you want to know the state of the race – and two new polls do not make up the average. As of today this is still a two or three point race in Kamala Harris’ favor. But with what her best polls are now telling us, this could be a five or six point race within a couple weeks. Remember, we have to run up the score in order to win by a large enough margin to fend off all the inevitable flukes and antics.