The real reason I now think we can keep the Senate in 2024
For all the talk about how the Democrats are doomed in 2024 because of the Senate map, the reality says something different. Yes, it would be very difficult for the Democrats to keep 51 Senate seats. But it’s actually pretty straightforward for them to keep the majority.
If the Democrats win all the Senate races that they’re favored in (which isn’t hard to do), and win the three toss-up Senate races (which is also doable if we put in the work), and President Biden wins reelection, that will give the Democrats a fifty seat de facto majority. And since that majority would be free of Manchin and Sinema, who are both retiring, it would a legitimate majority that the Democrats could do things with.
But it’s not just the straightforward math that makes me think the Democrats can keep the Senate. It’s the fact that the Republicans are actively blowing it so badly. One of the reasons the Senate race in Arizona has been moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Democrat” is that the Republicans nominated the increasingly unpopular Kari Lake. Thanks to that idiotic move by the Republicans, the Democrats only have to win three “Toss up” races instead of four.
The Republicans are also blowing it elsewhere. If the Democrats do win all three toss up Senate races, then the Republicans will have to pick off one of the races in which the Democrats are favored. But even in the Senate race in Maryland, where the Republicans have a solid underdog candidate in Larry Hogan, the RNC is idiotically attacking him for not being sufficiently pro-Trump. Everyone knows a Republican can’t win in Maryland by being pro-Trump. But the RNC, which is now a Trump family affair, doesn’t care about that. The RNC only cares about pressuring Republican candidates to be as pro-Trump as possible.
And that creates a huge opening for the Democrats. There are numerous races in swing states and swing districts where the Republican candidate would be wise to veer away from Trump. Yet the RNC will be pushing those candidates to veer toward Trump, simply to try to prop up a sinking Trump, even if it costs the Republicans those races.
Of course we still have to put in the work. That means donating, volunteering, phone banking, sending postcards, registering people to vote, retweeting candidates, you name it. The three “Toss up” races, where the odds are 50-50 and the Democrats need your help the most, are in Nevada (Jacky Rosen), Montana (Jon Tester), and Ohio (Sherrod Brown). The four “Lean Democrat” races, where the Democrats are favored but still need your help, are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Let’s get to work and keep the Senate in 2024.
