This is Trump’s most devastating post-conviction poll number yet

| 3:00 pm EDT June 4, 2024
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The polls, even when looked at collectively, should be treated with skepticism. Any one individual poll should be treated with even more skepticism. But for the moment, polls are the only measuring stick we have for how Donald Trump’s felony conviction may be impacting the 2024 election. Suffice it to say that if the real impact is even close to what the initial polls are saying, then Trump has a real problem.

We’ve already seen a few polls this week which suggested that independent and uncommitted voters disapprove of Trump now that he’s been found guilty. But one new poll from ABC News in particular is just plain awful for Trump. Among people who don’t like Trump or Biden, two-thirds of them think that Trump is guilty and that he should drop out.

Why is this such a big deal? When people say they don’t like either candidate, it’s usually their way of covering for the fact that they don’t know anything about politics. They try to convince themselves that they’re too good for either candidate, as an excuse to just stay home and pat themselves on the back for having done so. But when these lazy “both sides” types are occasionally presented with a really obvious choice, one that they know they can get right without having to know anything about politics, they can tend to jump on it.

Among these types who are reflexively saying they don’t like either candidate, two thirds of them think Trump is such a hideous candidate that he should drop out. These same people aren’t saying Biden should drop out, just Trump. So it becomes a really obvious opportunity for them to go out and vote for Biden, so they can brag that “I kept the felon out of office.”

Five months before an election, it’s commonplace for low information voters to say that they don’t like either candidate. Again, it’s code for them not knowing anything. But with so many of them turning around and saying that they think a lot less of Trump than they do of Biden, there’s a real opportunity here. The Biden campaign will target these kinds of voters. And it could end up making the difference.