Judge Merchan really is ready to put Donald Trump in jail
Last week I noted that Donald Trump’s gag order violations and Donald Trump’s gag order hearings were playing out in confusingly staggered order, such that the next time Judge Merchan ruled on the matter, it would still be for violations Trump committed before the judge warned Trump about jail time.
Sure enough, that ruling came down today, and it did not involve jail time. But Judge Merchan informed Trump in the most direct terms possible that he will throw Trump in jail in order to put a stop to Trump’s gag order violations. The judge acknowledged that Trump is a former President, but said that won’t stop him. The judge also said that locking up Trump might do no favors to the trial proceedings, but he’ll still do it anyway if necessary.
That last point is one that we should all take a moment to let sink in. If the judge has had any hesitancy about locking Trump up for his gag order violations, it’s not because Trump is getting special treatment. It’s because criminal trials go best when they play out as cleanly as possible. Having Trump be out of jail at the start of the trial, then in jail during part of the trial, then back out of jail, and so on, is a disruptive element – and judges hate disruptions.
That said, Judge Merchan left zero doubt today that Trump’s penalty for additional gag order violations will be prison. Keep in mind that Trump has not directly committed any gag order violations since the judge warned him about prison last week. Trump has been remarkably quiet about the witnesses in this case, even as he’s ranted unhingedly about so many other things. He’s clearly very afraid of getting locked up. But he’s also more unhinged and incoherent than ever.
So now we wait to see whether Donald Trump can control himself, or whether he goes to jail during this trial. One or the other will happen. Trump has a choice to make. We win either way, because either we get a distraction-free trial (which is good for getting a clean conviction), or we get to watch Trump locked up before this trial is even over.
