Here’s my best guess on the Supreme Court’s vote on Trump immunity, based on today’s hearing
If you were to look at some of the punditry associated with today’s Supreme Court hearing on Donald Trump’s supposed “presidential immunity,” you’d think the court is set to rule in Trump’s favor by a vote of 6-3 or 9-0 or 200-0. That’s because that punditry is based on trying to inject as much defeatist outrage into each sentence as possible for effect.
But I tried a different approach today, and some would even say a radical one. I actually listened to what the various justices were saying, for clues about how they’ll vote. I came away with the best guess that Jack Smith will win this ruling narrowly by a 5-4 vote. That math is based on how many justices seem to a firm yes, how many seem to be a firm no, and splitting the ones in half who seem to be a maybe.
There is also the possibility that the Supreme Court will remand this case back to the lower court, which would then delay things indefinitely. But while Gorsuch does seem inclined to want to do this, he doesn’t have a magic “remand” button on his desk. The court would have to vote to remand the case, not just Gorsuch.
I don’t trust this Supreme Court any more than you do. But some of these right wing justices have shown a real penchant for not wanting to use up their finite political muscle on trying to bail Trump out, because they have a very different corrupt agenda that’s far bigger than Trump. You can usually trust corrupt people to do whatever they think is in their own best personal interests, without regard for whether it’s right or wrong. To expect corrupt people to always do the most cartoonishly corrupt thing possible, even when a less corrupt move would personally benefit them more, is naive.
So yeah, my best guess is that Jack Smith wins 5-4. And please don’t label this as “optimism.” It’s not. Optimism would be expecting a 9-0 win, even though the justices’ arguments today point to a 5-4 win (more likely) or a 6-3 win (less likely) or a 5-4 loss (less likely). I’m just trying to keep it real.
Of course we’re already seeing the doomsday pundits laying the groundwork for their argument that anything less than a 9-0 win for Jack Smith will somehow be a loss and the end of our democracy. This is how they keep you feeling like you’re always losing, and thus keep you outraged enough to stay tuned to them, even when you’re winning.
No word on when the ruling will be announced. But keep in mind that if we win this, even by a narrow 5-4 margin, it’ll be a huge win. Trump will go on federal criminal trial before the election, which is what we’ve wanted all along. If we lose this ruling, we lose it, and that’ll be another story. But if we win it, for crying out loud let’s not spin it into a loss.
