Democrats win special election in Pennsylvania

| 8:41 pm EST February 13, 2024
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Even as we wait for the polls to close at 9pm eastern time in the New York special election to replace George Santos in the U.S. House, a different special election in Pennsylvania has already been called.

The special election for a state legislature seat was a theoretically pivotal one, because the majority was on the line. But because the district leans about ten points in the Democrats’ favor, no one was expecting it to be particularly competitive. Sure enough, the Democratic candidate won, and the Democrats will retain majority control of the Pennsylvania state legislature.

What does stand out is how the race was immediately called in the Democratic candidate’s favor once the polls closed. This typically points to a blowout win. We’re still waiting for the final numbers. But if the Democratic candidate did indeed win in a blowout that’s larger than the ten point leaning that the district has, that kind of over-performance would be a good sign for the Democrats in general.

Now all eyes turn to tonight’s special election in New York, where the race is expected to be close. That election will tell us a lot about where both parties currently stand heading into November. New York’s 3rd House District is an evenly matched toss-up district, and the Republicans won it last time. So if Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi wins by even a single vote, it’ll be seen as good news for the Democrats in general.