Bankruptcy watch

| 11:23 pm EST January 31, 2024
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On the day the $83 million verdict came down against Donald Trump in the second E. Jean Carroll trial, I wrote that it, combined with the upcoming verdict in Trump’s New York fraud trial, should be enough to bankrupt him. It’s a simple matter of math. If the New York verdict ends up being anything close to the $370 million that Letitia James is seeking, then Trump would suddenly be almost half a billion dollars in the hole between the two verdicts.

From there the procedural moves are complex, but the math is simple. Does Trump have half a billion dollars in cash to pay off these two verdicts? Can he swiftly sell off some of his assets for enough of a profit in order to come up with that kind of cash? If the answer to both questions is “no” then Trump will go bankrupt. And it won’t be one of those strategic “bankruptcies” that Trump has used in the past in order to get out of failed real estate projects. It’ll be real bankruptcy.

Now Tim Hogan is pointing out that we are indeed on bankruptcy watch. Once the New York fraud trial verdict comes down – and that should happen within days or hours – we’re about to quickly find out whether Trump can pay off these verdicts or whether the legal system is going to start dismantling him in order to take the damages from him by force.

Again, that’s a complex process. Trump’s assets don’t just fall through a trap door. There would be a deadline for him to decide whether to appeal (which he may not be able to afford to do, given the size of the bond required to file an appeal in the face of such a massive judgment). There would be a deadline for him to pay the damages. Then failing that there would be a timetable for taking his assets from him. Think of it more like a collection agency going after someone in court.

But throughout that process, Trump would increasingly lose access to his various assets. That’s the part that would get him in trouble. If you’re running a financial house of cards in which you have to keep moving money around in order to keep the lights on, and suddenly you’re cut off from a significant portion of your assets and funds, that shell game can quickly become impossible.

It’s also notable that even if Donald Trump does end up having to file personal bankruptcy over this, it may get him out of other debts, but it likely won’t get him out of these two massive verdicts against him. He’d have nothing to his name and he’d still owe money to E. Jean Carroll and Letitia James. So we’re not just on bankruptcy watch. We’re watching the complete destruction of Donald Trump.