Insurrection caucus is turning against “Speaker” Mike Johnson already
Mike Johnson is a far right extremist, so when he became Speaker of the House, the popular take was that he’d be a dangerously powerful ally to the other far right extremists within the House Republican caucus. But as I pointed out at the time, this overly simplistic take ignored the realities of what goes on in Congress behind closed doors.
Let’s all remember why Kevin McCarthy was ousted. Twice in a row, he prevented a government shutdown from happening at the last minute. It never gets talked about, but the reason for this is that the House Republicans running for reelection in the moderate toss-up districts are dead set against a shutdown. They’re the ones who obviously forced McCarthy to keep caving and keeping the government open. McCarthy was so afraid of them, he caved to them, even knowing it might prompt the insurrection caucus to take him down from the other side (which they did).
When Mike Johnson became Speaker, he immediately found himself in the same situation that McCarthy had been in. Johnson was not going to be able to keep both the insurrection caucus and the “toss up race” caucus happy. Johnson has been trying to keep the insurrection caucus happy, but he’s clearly decided that his priority is to keep the “toss up race” caucus happy. We saw this when Johnson near-automatically caved and kept the government open ahead of the latest deadline.
But even as Johnson prioritizes keeping the House Republicans in toss-up races happy, this is predictably alienating the House Republicans in the insurrection caucus. Politico says that the knives are coming out already against Johnson.
The only thing that might keep Mike Johnson on the job is that the Republicans may literally have no other options for Speaker of the House. The insurrection caucus knows that if they oust Johnson, there’s a good chance the position will remain vacant, and that the “toss up race” Republicans will end up handing the Speakership to some kind of bipartisan candidate. That alone might keep Johnson in place through the end of the term.
But given the circumstances under which Mike Johnson became Speaker, it seemed obvious at the time that he was going to have to prioritize keeping the “toss up race” Republicans happy, and that it was a matter of time before he alienated his fellow far right extremist House Republicans in the process. The only question now is how much longer Johnson can last, now that the knives are out.
