Matt Gaetz just got really bad news

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Matt Gaetz has avoided expulsion, for the moment, and the Republicans who were leaking dirt about his personal life have stopped, for now. But there’s still reportedly a House Ethics Committee report about to come out that could push his scandals so firmly into the media spotlight that House Republicans strategically decide to throw him overboard.

We keep hearing this narrative that Gaetz will be fine if he’s expelled, because he’ll just run for Governor of Florida and magically win. This narrative has never made any sense. Gaetz may be popular in his own far right district. But while Florida is trending a few points red overall, the state at large looks nothing like Gaetz’s district in terms of political leanings.

The idea that Gaetz, with an alleged underage sex trafficking scandal hanging over his head, could somehow be viable in a race for Governor of Florida, is kind of laughable on its face. Now we’re getting confirmation of this. One new poll says that Gaetz’s approval rating in Florida is just 21%.

You always have to take any one poll with a grain of salt. But even if this poll is off by, say, five points in Gaetz’s favor, it would still mean that half of Florida Republicans disapprove of him (and presumably all of Florida Democrats). That is, obviously, not a path to winning a statewide election in Florida, or even being viable for the Republican nomination. And this is all before the House Ethics Committee report can potentially push Gaetz’s scandals firmly into the spotlight. The idea that he has a future in politics is silly. He’ll be lucky if he’s able to keep the seat he has without getting expelled.