Looks like the Democrats just picked up a House seat in Louisiana
Once the U.S. Supreme Court made the surprising but correct decision to strike down racial gerrymandering, it became clear that several majority-Black House districts would be created in southern states. Republican state governments may not have liked the ruling, but there’s no such thing as magically ignoring a U.S. Supreme Court ruling. Nor is there any such thing as “running out the clock” on a U.S. Supreme Court ruling.
So it was not at all surprising that after Alabama Republicans submitted two 2024 maps that were in direct violation of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, the courts went ahead and drew a fair map for Alabama. After that, Alabama Republicans admitted that they would have to accept this map for 2024, because they have no choice.
Yet we keep hearing gibberish from the media and pundit class about how Republicans in other southern states will still just be able to magically “run out the clock” and go with whatever maps they want in 2024. Meanwhile back in the real world, things are playing out very differently.
Federal court has just ordered Louisiana to submit a fair congressional map by January of 2024. It’s fairly obvious that if Louisiana Republicans try submitting a racially gerrymandered map, the court will simply draw a 2024 map for Louisiana. The January 2024 timeframe allows plenty of time for the districts to be fairly drawn before the 2024 House races truly get underway. The inevitable fair map in Louisiana will add a majority-Black district for 2024, which will very likely be won by the Democratic Party.
We’ve also recently seen a federal court ruling in Georgia which appears to signal that the maps will be fairly redrawn there in 2024. This would add yet another majority-Black House district for 2024, and thus yet another very likely Democratic Party victory.
We’re still hearing endless doomsday hysteria about how North Carolina Republicans are going to somehow magically ignore the U.S. Supreme Court and do whatever they want with their 2024 House map. But we keep seeing in state after state that things simply don’t work this way. For better or worse, there is simply no such thing as magically evading a U.S. Supreme Court ruling. The 2024 House maps will reflect that.
Some folks keep pointing to Ohio, where Republicans have been battling a state level Supreme Court ruling over House districts. But that’s an internal battle between a state legislature and a state Supreme Court. The gerrymandering in Ohio isn’t racial gerrymandering, so it doesn’t fall under the purview of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling. The Ohio saga has nothing to do with the conversation about what the House maps will look like in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina in 2024.
