Those 2024 poll numbers look dramatically different in the fine print than they do on the surface

| 6:00 pm EST November 7, 2023
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While a number of the very online political people either spent the weekend celebrating or doomcasting the NYT Siena poll, one thing that many people neglected to read in the crosstabs is that the 91 indictments Donald Trump is facing actually do play a pretty big role, it’s just that only 39% of voters think they’re important right now. If the former guy is convicted next year, the numbers are dramatically different, skewing all the battleground states strongly in President Biden’s direction. I don’t put much emphasis on any particular poll, so I’m not overly concerned in what this shows us either way a year out from the elections, but it is when you consider what is reportedly Donald Trump’s strategy for 2024.

We already heard of his plans to use the DOJ to get revenge in 2025 – starting with all the Trumpers in his own administration who weren’t sufficiently loyal, but his genius strategy to get elected in the first place is to make a martyr of himself at the trial by seeing how things play out in the court of public opinion – and this is fairly consistent with what we’ve seen in his tweets on social media and his buffoonish demeanor in court. He wants to revolve the election around the fact that he’s somehow a political prisoner, while homing in on his trials – diverting entirely from making the election a referendum on President Biden, as reelection campaigns tend to always focus on the incumbent president. Not only is this a terrible plan that would backfire spectacularly, it could even get Republican leadership to turn on him along the way.