Coincidence?

Of all the beliefs of conspiracy theorists perhaps the most bewildering is their disavowal of coincidences. Comment sections of articles, memes and even physical posters on actual walls declare their ignorance to the world with the words, “I don’t believe in coincidences,” or, “There’s no such thing as a coincidence.” Sometimes it’s expressed with the dripping-with-innuendo inanity, “Everything happens for a reason.”

This disbelief in coincidences is in fact a common logical fallacy in disguise. The fallacy is so old it is often expressed in Latin as post hoc ergo propter hoc, or, “before this therefore because of this.” In other words, if two things happen simultaneously, or one after another, they MUST be linked. There can be no other explanation.

Unfortunately for people living on the wrong side of a coincidence this can be a devastating human tendency. The common proclivity for people to link events and insist that they mean something, insist they are connected, has ruined lives, put people in prison and even led to their execution.

We see such inanity every day. Fred insists he got the job because he wore his lucky tie to the interview. Fred’s wife knows he got the job despite the tie, and the woman who hired Fred will confirm that she almost didn’t hire him because of his tie. People conduct their lives with this nonsense every day, and often as not there’s no talking them out of it.

This is why a coincidence by itself is not considered evidence in a court of law. Forensic evidence, witness evidence, recordings, photographs, these are evidence. Yes, coincidences are used as well, but only when supported by evidence. Jack’s cellphone accessed the tower near the murder scene. But Jack’s fingerprint was found on the murder weapon. Coincidences cannot stand by themselves.

Coincidences sometimes come in the form of a benefit. That, too, has a Latin equivalent, cui bono?, or, who benefits? We know this is nonsense and we see examples of it every day. Jane’s aunt dies and leaves her a million dollars. Only a fool assumes that Jane murdered her aunt on the strength of that fact alone. If other circumstances suggest that Jane’s aunt died under mysterious circumstances and Jane is implicated by physical evidence, then, and only then, might we have something.

Conspiracy theories are chains that are built link by link and yard by yard with coincidences. Sometimes the coincidences are laughably weak. Sometimes they are built on exaggerations, or even lies. Whole conspiracy theory books are written in a kind breathless, self-important style, filled with nothing but coincidences.

And by the way, if you’re looking for coincidences that can “suggest” anything you want you’re in luck. Everything can be misinterpreted to “prove” anything you like using coincidences. Coincidences are present in every event no matter how trivial. All you have to do is seek them out and broadcast them in a loud and confident voice. The sky really is the limit.

The assassination of John F. Kennedy in November of 1963 is a classic example of this. Literally hundreds of books, possibly even a thousand, have been written about that day, books that are chock full of conspiracy theories that contradict other conspiracy theories. Every single one is a coincidence-laden mess of innuendo without any final evidence and without a single shred of proof. Yet the sad fact is most Americans think the assassination was a conspiracy of millions of moving parts and dozens or hundreds or even thousands of people.

Every conspiracy theory is built in this way and every one is unsupported by real evidence. Days pass, weeks pass, years become decades and decades become centuries, but no evidence to support these theories ever comes to light. It’s because they are almost certainly lies. In any event they are only conjectures.

We all know about conspiracies that aren’t lies. Those are not conspiracy theories, they are conspiracies that actually happened because they are supported by solid evidence. The Watergate scandal, for example, was a real conspiracy that led to actual arrests of real persons. The Watergate conspiracy was broken open by uncovering evidence and witness testimony. Coincidences sometimes suggested where to look for evidence but it was the evidence, not the coincidences, that carried the day.

Republicans use the human willingness to believe in coincidences to cynically manipulate minds and opinions. Before he was justly kicked to the sidelines of irrelevance, Tucker Carlson made a career out of “asking questions” about apparent coincidences that meant absolutely nothing. Those questions were unsupported by facts, but they sounded plausible to the gullible when recited in a certain tone of voice. And whole living rooms full of idiots fell for it.

I hasten to add that all of this doesn’t mean that all conspiracy theories are automatically wrong. It means that we cannot assert anything meaningful about them in the absence of real evidence. And when actual evidence points in the opposite direction of the conspiracy theory, then expect to be justly ridiculed for believing them.

Actual evidence says 9/11 was caused by al-Qaeda, not the Bush administration. Actual evidence says that MMR vaccines save lives and don’t cause autism. Actual evidence says we went to the moon. Actual evidence says we are not being spied on by space aliens. Actual evidence says that Hunter Biden is nothing more than a man with an addiction problem and a history of fairly minor mistakes. Actual evidence says that Joe Biden is an honourable man, not a criminal mastermind. Actual evidence says he won the 2020 election by seven and a half million votes.

It’s important that we all learn the difference between actual evidence and coincidence. There really are such things as coincidences, they usually mean absolutely nothing substantial and, by themselves, they don’t constitute real evidence. So be careful, because unscrupulous people will try to manipulate you if you believe otherwise. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.